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Not all 59% are created equal

Posted By: Michael
Date: Thursday, 12 October 2017, at 11:16 a.m.

In Response To: Theoretical question: correct double below doubling point (Carlo Melzi)

Notice that what the bots present as %ages are just averages. A 59% in a race of about 70 pips at this score would be a ND, but at this position this 59% is made of 3 parts each delivering totally different winning chances

a)17/36 (47.2%) hit turning the game to 95%-5%
b)17/36 (47.2%) don't hit turning the game to 25%-75%
c)2/36 (55,44--> 5.5% turn the game to 50-50%

If you take values from the MET and do the calculations you will find out that Doubling gains some 0.57% MWC.

In this case it's easy to do it because of the above conditions and values, so here's how I would estimate it (excluding gammons) for anyone interested.

MET Values
Win at Cube 1: 20.06% MWC
Lose at Cube 1: 9.28% MWC

Win at Cube 2: 25.64% MWC
Lose at Cube 2: 0% MWC

CUBE 1
a)20.06 % MWC because of D/P
b)9.28 % MWC because of D/P
c)14.67 % MWC (average between 20.06 and 9.28)

20.06*.47+9.28*.47+14.67*.055=14.59 % MWC

CUBE 2
a)24.36 % MWC (95% of 25.64)
b)6.4 % MWC (25% of 25.64)
c)12.82 % MWC (50% of 25.64)

24.36*.47+6.4*.47+12.82*.055=15.16 % MWC

Gain= 0.57% MWC

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