BGonline.org Forums

Bear-Off cube decision (XG Results)

Posted By: Justin Nowell
Date: Monday, 23 April 2018, at 3:16 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-Off cube decision (Justin Nowell)

When I ran the position from the match I saw for money these were the results.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 44 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 37 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-F-------------dbab---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	71.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	28.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.437	+0.873
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.715 (-0.018)	±0.002 (+0.713..+0.717)
Redouble/Take:	+0.734	±0.003 (+0.731..+0.736)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.266)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 15.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

At the match score the position was dropped very quickly which is why I had to investigate.

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 44 9 point match pip: 37 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-B-F-------------dbab---:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	71.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	28.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.437	+0.914
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.662	±0.002 (+0.660..+0.663)
Redouble/Take:	+0.519 (-0.143)	±0.002 (+0.517..+0.521)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.338)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.9%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 16.8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Bear-Off cube decision
  Justin Nowell -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 8:56 p.m.
  • Bear-Off cube decision
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 9:58 p.m.
    • Bear-Off cube decision
      Kevin McDonough -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 10:14 p.m.
      • Bear-Off cube decision
        John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 10:51 p.m.
        • Bear-Off cube decision
          Justin Nowell -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 11:26 p.m.
          • Bear-Off cube decision
            Kevin McDonough -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 11:34 p.m.
          • Bear-Off cube decision
            John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 11:43 p.m.
    • Bear-Off cube decision
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 11:52 p.m.
      • Bear-Off cube decision
        Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 6:40 a.m.
  • Bear-Off cube decision
    Mochy -- Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 10:23 a.m.
    • Bear-Off cube decision
      Hans Marius Eikseth -- Friday, 27 April 2018, at 6:45 a.m.
  • Bear-Off cube decision
    benf -- Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 1:10 p.m.
  • Bear-Off cube decision (XG Results)
    Justin Nowell -- Monday, 23 April 2018, at 3:16 p.m.
  • Bear-Off cube decision
    ah_clem -- Friday, 27 April 2018, at 3:42 p.m.
  • Bear-Off cube decision
    Stick -- Sunday, 29 April 2018, at 6:51 a.m.
    • Bear-Off cube decision
      James Timoney -- Monday, 30 April 2018, at 3:55 p.m.
      • Bear-Off cube decision
        Stick -- Tuesday, 1 May 2018, at 12:03 a.m.