Best play in the original position is the banana split, indeed.
1. | Rollout1 | 23/21 2/1* | eq: -0,433 |
| Player: Opponent: | 30,49% (G:7,59% B:0,23%) 69,51% (G:22,16% B:1,37%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,438...-0,428) - [100,0%] Duration: 21 minutes 20 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 23/21 8/7 | eq: -0,471 (-0,038) |
| Player: Opponent: | 28,24% (G:5,95% B:0,17%) 71,76% (G:19,12% B:0,96%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,475...-0,467) - [0,0%] Duration: 17 minutes 22 seconds |
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3. | Rollout1 | 23/22 8/6 | eq: -0,471 (-0,038) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26,84% (G:4,43% B:0,11%) 73,16% (G:14,20% B:0,58%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,475...-0,468) - [0,0%] Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds |
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4. | Rollout1 | 23/21 4/3 | eq: -0,471 (-0,039) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26,94% (G:4,97% B:0,15%) 73,06% (G:15,23% B:0,66%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,475...-0,468) - [0,0%] Duration: 15 minutes 31 seconds |
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5. | Rollout2 | 4/1* | eq: -0,501 (-0,068) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26,75% (G:5,99% B:0,14%) 73,25% (G:18,49% B:0,95%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,511...-0,491) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds |
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6. | Rollout2 | 23/22 23/21 | eq: -0,509 (-0,076) |
| Player: Opponent: | 28,43% (G:5,59% B:0,19%) 71,57% (G:22,66% B:1,31%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,518...-0,500) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds |
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7. | Rollout2 | 23/22 4/2 | eq: -0,544 (-0,111) |
| Player: Opponent: | 24,77% (G:3,64% B:0,09%) 75,23% (G:15,92% B:0,78%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,553...-0,535) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds |
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1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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I find it interesting that this play is so much better than 4/1*.
If we diversify White's spares on top of her prime (not diagrammed), the play stands out even more. We just need the tempo.
If we take back some of the builders from White's front, the double split becomes best as the risk of getting blitzed decreases. See the variant below where I adjusted White 5/13(2).
1. | Rollout1 | 23/22 23/21 | eq: -0,542 |
| Player: Opponent: | 26,50% (G:7,55% B:0,25%) 73,50% (G:22,66% B:1,25%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,548...-0,536) - [100,0%] Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 23/21 2/1* | eq: -0,575 (-0,033) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25,35% (G:7,98% B:0,19%) 74,65% (G:23,64% B:1,47%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,582...-0,569) - [0,0%] Duration: 13 minutes 19 seconds |
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3. | Rollout2 | 23/22 8/6 | eq: -0,608 (-0,066) |
| Player: Opponent: | 22,07% (G:5,07% B:0,11%) 77,93% (G:17,35% B:0,82%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,619...-0,597) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds |
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4. | Rollout2 | 23/21 8/7 | eq: -0,617 (-0,075) |
| Player: Opponent: | 22,71% (G:6,12% B:0,15%) 77,29% (G:20,35% B:1,03%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,627...-0,606) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds |
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5. | Rollout2 | 23/21 4/3 | eq: -0,624 (-0,082) |
| Player: Opponent: | 22,02% (G:4,89% B:0,10%) 77,98% (G:17,97% B:0,85%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,635...-0,613) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds |
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6. | Rollout2 | 4/1* | eq: -0,641 (-0,099) |
| Player: Opponent: | 21,96% (G:6,84% B:0,12%) 78,04% (G:21,25% B:0,97%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,652...-0,630) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds |
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7. | Rollout2 | 23/22 4/2 | eq: -0,683 (-0,141) |
| Player: Opponent: | 20,09% (G:3,88% B:0,11%) 79,91% (G:18,63% B:0,86%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,694...-0,673) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds |
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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Another variant I find interesintg is the one below, where I moved Blue's anchor back to the ace. The banana split is out of picture even though another hitting play wins the field.
1. | Rollout1 | 4/1* | eq: -0,528 |
| Player: Opponent: | 27,34% (G:6,58% B:0,15%) 72,66% (G:22,36% B:1,82%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,534...-0,522) - [100,0%] Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 | eq: -0,560 (-0,032) |
| Player: Opponent: | 25,63% (G:5,67% B:0,19%) 74,37% (G:20,84% B:1,49%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,565...-0,554) - [0,0%] Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds |
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3. | Rollout2 | 24/22 2/1* | eq: -0,586 (-0,058) |
| Player: Opponent: | 26,87% (G:5,97% B:0,19%) 73,13% (G:26,22% B:3,13%) | Conf.: ± 0,019 (-0,605...-0,568) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds |
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4. | Rollout2 | 24/23 8/6 | eq: -0,595 (-0,067) |
| Player: Opponent: | 24,14% (G:4,55% B:0,12%) 75,86% (G:20,05% B:1,39%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,604...-0,585) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds |
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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