Prime vs prime.. sort of

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Prime vs prime.. sort of - ROLLOUT & VAR

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Monday, 23 April 2018, at 9:55 p.m.

In Response To: Prime vs prime.. sort of (Karol Szczerek)

Best play in the original position is the banana split, indeed.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113

Unlimited Game

pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBBC-B-C------a-bbde--C--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 2/1* eq: -0,433
Player:
Opponent: 30,49% (G:7,59% B:0,23%)
69,51% (G:22,16% B:1,37%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,438...-0,428) - [100,0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 20 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/21 8/7 eq: -0,471 (-0,038)
Player:
Opponent: 28,24% (G:5,95% B:0,17%)
71,76% (G:19,12% B:0,96%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,475...-0,467) - [0,0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 22 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/6 eq: -0,471 (-0,038)
Player:
Opponent: 26,84% (G:4,43% B:0,11%)
73,16% (G:14,20% B:0,58%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,475...-0,468) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 11 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 23/21 4/3 eq: -0,471 (-0,039)
Player:
Opponent: 26,94% (G:4,97% B:0,15%)
73,06% (G:15,23% B:0,66%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,475...-0,468) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 31 seconds
5. Rollout² 4/1* eq: -0,501 (-0,068)
Player:
Opponent: 26,75% (G:5,99% B:0,14%)
73,25% (G:18,49% B:0,95%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,511...-0,491) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 50 seconds
6. Rollout² 23/22 23/21 eq: -0,509 (-0,076)
Player:
Opponent: 28,43% (G:5,59% B:0,19%)
71,57% (G:22,66% B:1,31%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,518...-0,500) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
7. Rollout² 23/22 4/2 eq: -0,544 (-0,111)
Player:
Opponent: 24,77% (G:3,64% B:0,09%)
75,23% (G:15,92% B:0,78%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,553...-0,535) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 16 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I find it interesting that this play is so much better than 4/1*.
If we diversify White's spares on top of her prime (not diagrammed), the play stands out even more. We just need the tempo.
If we take back some of the builders from White's front, the double split becomes best as the risk of getting blitzed decreases. See the variant below where I adjusted White 5/13(2).

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129

Unlimited Game

pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBBC-B-C---b--a-bbdc--C--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 23/21 eq: -0,542
Player:
Opponent: 26,50% (G:7,55% B:0,25%)
73,50% (G:22,66% B:1,25%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,548...-0,536) - [100,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/21 2/1* eq: -0,575 (-0,033)
Player:
Opponent: 25,35% (G:7,98% B:0,19%)
74,65% (G:23,64% B:1,47%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,582...-0,569) - [0,0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 19 seconds
3. Rollout² 23/22 8/6 eq: -0,608 (-0,066)
Player:
Opponent: 22,07% (G:5,07% B:0,11%)
77,93% (G:17,35% B:0,82%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,619...-0,597) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds
4. Rollout² 23/21 8/7 eq: -0,617 (-0,075)
Player:
Opponent: 22,71% (G:6,12% B:0,15%)
77,29% (G:20,35% B:1,03%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,627...-0,606) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
5. Rollout² 23/21 4/3 eq: -0,624 (-0,082)
Player:
Opponent: 22,02% (G:4,89% B:0,10%)
77,98% (G:17,97% B:0,85%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,635...-0,613) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
6. Rollout² 4/1* eq: -0,641 (-0,099)
Player:
Opponent: 21,96% (G:6,84% B:0,12%)
78,04% (G:21,25% B:0,97%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,652...-0,630) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
7. Rollout² 23/22 4/2 eq: -0,683 (-0,141)
Player:
Opponent: 20,09% (G:3,88% B:0,11%)
79,91% (G:18,63% B:0,86%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,694...-0,673) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Another variant I find interesintg is the one below, where I moved Blue's anchor back to the ace. The banana split is out of picture even though another hitting play wins the field.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113

Unlimited Game

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBBC-B-C------a-bbde---C-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 4/1* eq: -0,528
Player:
Opponent: 27,34% (G:6,58% B:0,15%)
72,66% (G:22,36% B:1,82%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,534...-0,522) - [100,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 39 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 eq: -0,560 (-0,032)
Player:
Opponent: 25,63% (G:5,67% B:0,19%)
74,37% (G:20,84% B:1,49%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,565...-0,554) - [0,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds
3. Rollout² 24/22 2/1* eq: -0,586 (-0,058)
Player:
Opponent: 26,87% (G:5,97% B:0,19%)
73,13% (G:26,22% B:3,13%) Conf.: ± 0,019 (-0,605...-0,568) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
4. Rollout² 24/23 8/6 eq: -0,595 (-0,067)
Player:
Opponent: 24,14% (G:4,55% B:0,12%)
75,86% (G:20,05% B:1,39%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,604...-0,585) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

Prime vs prime.. sort of
Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 21 April 2018, at 8:11 p.m.
- Prime vs prime.. sort of
  higonefive -- Sunday, 22 April 2018, at 5:56 p.m.
- Prime vs prime.. sort of
  garyo -- Monday, 23 April 2018, at 6:43 a.m.
- Prime vs prime.. sort of - ROLLOUT & VAR
  Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 23 April 2018, at 9:55 p.m.

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