|
BGonline.org Forums
OTB RO and analysis,etc
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Some match equity and endgame practice. (neilkaz)
Date: Sunday, 8 July 2018, at 12:46 a.m.
OTB I realized my opp's 26% dead cube TP and that often players wait too long to recube here when the leader's cube is dead. Looking at the position I estimated 66% winning chances. I could see that if I take a checker off I arrive at a 6 roll position and will be a nice fave if he dances and things will be close if he enters but I can hope he misses with an ace or two aces if he can slot his ace pt coming around (which might cause a miss due to other rolls).
Of course he took, and I managed to eek out a win. Had I known I was 65% I'd have held off.
I will stress that endgames should be rolled out with a high level of play and many trials. This is using my laptop which only cals at 3.5M/sec
White is Player 2
score: 7
pip: 4011 point match pip: 38
score: 4
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBCDBB----------------cc--:1:1:1:00:4:7:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.967% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 65.021% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.033% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 34.979% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Cubeless Equities +0.2993 +0.6144 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.6142 (-0.0002) ±0.0001 (+0.6141..+0.6143) Redouble/Take: +0.6144 ±0.0001 (+0.6143..+0.6145) Redouble/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.3856) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 518400 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+Double Decision confidence: 99.2% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
|
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.