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OTB RO and analysis,etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 8 July 2018, at 12:46 a.m.

In Response To: Some match equity and endgame practice. (neilkaz)

OTB I realized my opp's 26% dead cube TP and that often players wait too long to recube here when the leader's cube is dead. Looking at the position I estimated 66% winning chances. I could see that if I take a checker off I arrive at a 6 roll position and will be a nice fave if he dances and things will be close if he enters but I can hope he misses with an ace or two aces if he can slot his ace pt coming around (which might cause a miss due to other rolls).

Of course he took, and I managed to eek out a win. Had I known I was 65% I'd have held off.

I will stress that endgames should be rolled out with a high level of play and many trials. This is using my laptop which only cals at 3.5M/sec





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 40
11 point match
pip: 38
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBCDBB----------------cc--:1:1:1:00:4:7:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.967% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 65.021% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.033% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 34.979% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2993 +0.6144
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6142 (-0.0002)±0.0001 (+0.6141..+0.6143)
Redouble/Take:+0.6144±0.0001 (+0.6143..+0.6145)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3856)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
518400 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:99.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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