Two positions appear below: side by side if your window is wide. My 5k rollout of the first (left-hand) position shows W (Wild, 21/16 6/5) to be the clear winner.
The second (right-hand) position is 43Z-31P-51, where W ranks fourth in the rollout.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 6/5 | eq: -0.293 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.48% (G:10.45% B:0.47%)
55.52% (G:19.95% B:1.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.301...-0.285) - [100.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 21/16 | eq: -0.323 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.29% (G:10.29% B:0.51%)
56.71% (G:19.29% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.330...-0.315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/8 | eq: -0.325 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.65% (G:11.22% B:0.55%)
57.35% (G:18.12% B:0.87%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.333...-0.317) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 21/15 | eq: -0.336 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.87% (G:10.01% B:0.48%)
57.13% (G:18.65% B:0.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.343...-0.328) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12447712
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/16 9/8 | eq: -0.319 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.30% (G:10.44% B:0.49%)
56.70% (G:18.59% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.326...-0.311) - [99.6%]
Duration: 38 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/15 | eq: -0.334 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.77% (G:10.33% B:0.49%)
57.23% (G:18.14% B:0.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.341...-0.326) - [0.3%]
Duration: 41 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/8 | eq: -0.336 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.18% (G:11.52% B:0.59%)
57.82% (G:18.55% B:0.94%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.344...-0.328) - [0.1%]
Duration: 37 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 21/16 6/5 | eq: -0.341 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.88% (G:10.55% B:0.52%)
57.12% (G:20.51% B:1.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.350...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/8 9/8 | eq: -0.352 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.19% (G:11.42% B:0.60%)
57.81% (G:18.23% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.360...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 24 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/23 21/16 | eq: -0.364 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.02% (G:10.32% B:0.46%)
57.98% (G:18.76% B:0.86%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.372...-0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84646480
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
To understand why W (Wild, 21/16 6/5) is materially stronger in the first position than in the second, see the analysis of 65R-41$-31 versus 65R-21$-31 in Backgammon Openings, pages 54–55.
It is rumored that my partner in writing that book, Paul Weaver, was studying third roll positions before I was born.
Nack
