Another basic backgame cube?
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Another basic backgame cube? (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 9 July 2018, at 3:18 p.m.
In Response To: Another basic backgame cube? (neilkaz)
For white to win, blue has to leave a shot and then white has to hit it. She should have enough containment if those two things happen.
Assuming that two runners are still in place when the shot arrives, that gives a double shot or about 50% to hit. How often does blue leave a shot? 66 55 and 44 blot immediately, but I can't count more than that in my head. Maybe 50% to blot overall? That gives white 25% GWC. Blue is pretty much gammon proof. Recubes that are takes seem rare, so blue is risking at most two points and has a very good chance at a doubled gammon to get to Crawford.
Seems like white has enough to take AtS, but some will pass so that makes me even more inclined to ship it. Also, 3s are killed so white may be forced off one of the anchors before blue leaves a shot.
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