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OTB and analysis

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 4:13 p.m.

In Response To: OTB and analysis (neilkaz)

Here is how I would think about it:

4 numbers win immediately. 8 numbers (31 11 41 42) win ~85% of 50%, call it 40% to be conservative (running total of 7/12 wins), 4 numbers (21 and 32) roughly cancel out to 50% (running total of 9/16 wins), then 51 61 win a decent %--let's say around 60% (running total of 11/20 wins) and the rest win around 80%. So 80% of 16 is around 13, running total of 24/36 wins. So Blue is roughly a 2-1 favorite.

If White passes then the score is 6-2/11 which is about 72%, if White takes and wins he has like 97%, and if White takes and loses he is at 6-4/11 which is around 62%. So he is risking 10 to gain 25, so getting ~2.5-1, well over 2-1. Therefore it should be a clear take.

Messages In This Thread

• Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
  neilkaz -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 6:34 p.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Joseph Pregler -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 7:34 p.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 5:49 a.m.
      • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
        Joseph Pregler -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:01 p.m.
      • 3 Checker EPC
        Rico -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 11:50 p.m.
        • 3 Checker EPC
          Rico -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 12:02 a.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:50 p.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Karol Szczerek -- Monday, 27 August 2018, at 9:02 p.m.
    • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 1:26 a.m.
      • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
        Karol Szczerek -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 5:39 a.m.
  • Sometimes BG is mostly a math game.
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 7:14 a.m.
  • OTB and analysis
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 2:20 p.m.
    • OTB and analysis
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 28 August 2018, at 4:13 p.m.
    • OTB and analysis
      Frank Talbot -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 5:33 a.m.
      • OTB and analysis
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 29 August 2018, at 6:09 p.m.
      • OTB and analysis
        Frank Talbot -- Thursday, 30 August 2018, at 2:43 a.m.
  • Talbot method to evaluate 3 checker bearoff
    Bill Calton -- Sunday, 16 September 2018, at 12:25 a.m.
    • Mistake in the last example
      Karol Szczerek -- Sunday, 16 September 2018, at 10:39 a.m.