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65 Early Game - Rollout and VARIANTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 4:36 p.m.

In Response To: 65 Early Game - Rollout (Karol Szczerek)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-C--AeD---c-eA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Original position


1.Rollout124/13eq: -0,214
Player:
Opponent:
45,43% (G:7,62% B:0,29%)
54,57% (G:13,20% B:0,42%)
Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,220...-0,207) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/6eq: -0,235 (-0,021)
Player:
Opponent:
44,55% (G:9,34% B:0,31%)
55,45% (G:13,38% B:0,53%)
Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,242...-0,228) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
3.Rollout220/9eq: -0,252 (-0,038)
Player:
Opponent:
44,28% (G:9,39% B:0,37%)
55,72% (G:14,15% B:0,55%)
Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,262...-0,242) - [0,0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 39 seconds
4.Rollout220/14 11/6eq: -0,267 (-0,054)
Player:
Opponent:
44,08% (G:7,27% B:0,27%)
55,92% (G:14,00% B:0,39%)
Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,277...-0,257) - [0,0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Above is Karol's rollout of his original position (64R-42S-54@-65). Best is the straightforward "lover's leap."

What happens if we move back a Black spare from 6pt to midpoint? In that case...






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 168
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bD-C--AeE---c-eA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1 (Black spare moved from 6pt to midpoint)


1.Rollout113/7 11/6eq: -0.263
Player:
Opponent:
43.86% (G:8.29% B:0.32%)
56.14% (G:13.51% B:0.50%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.271...-0.256) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
2.Rollout124/13eq: -0.310 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
43.21% (G:6.46% B:0.26%)
56.79% (G:14.18% B:0.43%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.317...-0.302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 06 minutes
3.Rollout120/9eq: -0.312 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
42.96% (G:8.32% B:0.32%)
57.04% (G:14.38% B:0.59%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.320...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.325 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
42.45% (G:9.67% B:0.39%)
57.55% (G:15.87% B:0.87%)
Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.342...-0.308) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
5.Rollout220/14 11/6eq: -0.342 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
42.25% (G:6.67% B:0.24%)
57.75% (G:14.20% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.352...-0.331) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 21 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34574574
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34574574
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


From the original position, we'll move a White spare from midpoint to 6pt, as shown below. In this case, a third play finds its way to the top.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-C--AdD---c-fA---A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2 (White spare moved from midpoint to 6pt)


1.Rollout120/9eq: -0.291
Player:
Opponent:
43.35% (G:9.38% B:0.37%)
56.65% (G:15.80% B:0.67%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.299...-0.284) - [99.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 11/6eq: -0.304 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
42.98% (G:8.46% B:0.30%)
57.02% (G:14.46% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.311...-0.298) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
3.Rollout124/13eq: -0.311 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
43.08% (G:6.39% B:0.27%)
56.92% (G:14.18% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.318...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
4.Rollout120/14 11/6eq: -0.328 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
42.76% (G:6.98% B:0.26%)
57.24% (G:14.94% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.335...-0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 34574574
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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