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Run or make the bar point? --VARIANTS and ROLLOUTS (corrected)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 6 January 2020, at 3:50 a.m.

In Response To: Run or make the bar point? (leobueno)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 149 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---b--E-D--AdD---b-bcb--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Original position (money) (White owns her 22pt) 31P-63R-62O-54D-22E-64

1.	Rollout1	24/14	eq: -0.224
	Player: Opponent: 45.51% (G:4.31% B:0.16%) 54.49% (G:14.31% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.233...-0.214) - [100.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 30 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: -0.357 (-0.133)
	Player: Opponent: 42.11% (G:7.71% B:0.28%) 57.89% (G:17.02% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.372...-0.341) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 20056670 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In general, I prefer to post a position for money/unlimited (regardless of how it originally arose OTB), unless the match score is relevant (e.g., where the best play differs from the best play for money, or it makes an otherwise easy choice more interesting).

Above is leobueno's original "run or make the bar point" position, rolled out (1k) for money. As you can see, the result is a wipeout (+.133) in favor of R (Run, 24/14). For reference (not shown here), leobueno rolled out (1k) R as an even a bigger wipeout (+.170) AtS, meaning at his –5–7 score.

Below is a variant of the original position, where White's back checkers are split; that is, one of her 22pt checkers is still back on her 24pt. For money, this change swings (by .163) Blue's best play: from R by .133, to P (Point, 13/7 11/7) by .030.

At the –5–7 score, P beats R by a smaller margin of .018 (5k rollout not shown).

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 149 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--E-D--AdD---b-bcb--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 (money) (White's back checkers are split) 31P-52S-51N-65S-42P-65R-64H-21H-21U-64

1.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: -0.259
	Player: Opponent: 44.13% (G:9.37% B:0.37%) 55.87% (G:15.62% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.266...-0.253) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/14	eq: -0.289 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 44.42% (G:6.66% B:0.24%) 55.58% (G:18.96% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.295...-0.283) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74267226 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Below is a second variant that also contrasts the original position (i.e., P is best). Here, White's other 22pt checker is also back on the 24pt.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 149 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D--AdD---b-bcb--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2a (money) (White owns 24pt) 31P-52S-51N-65S-42P-64

1.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: -0.148
	Player: Opponent: 46.96% (G:11.55% B:0.60%) 53.04% (G:16.45% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.153...-0.143) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/14	eq: -0.161 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 47.75% (G:6.97% B:0.27%) 52.25% (G:16.53% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.166...-0.157) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74267226 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Below is the same variant position, but at the –5–7 score. The alteration still makes a big margin change (.152) from the original, though it's not enough to cross over. As a consequence, it creates an AtS "straddle" with the money rollout above.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 151 7 point match pip: 149 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D--AdD---b-bcb--A-:0:0:1:64:2:0:0:7:10
Variant 2b (–5 –7) (White owns 24pt) 31P-52S-51N-65S-42P-64

1.	Rollout1	24/14	eq: -0.242
	Player: Opponent: 47.88% (G:7.36% B:0.36%) 52.12% (G:16.85% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.246...-0.238) - [99.9%] Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/7 11/7	eq: -0.252 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 47.00% (G:12.10% B:0.77%) 53.00% (G:17.47% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.258...-0.247) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 37867071 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Run or make the bar point?
  leobueno -- Monday, 9 December 2019, at 11:42 p.m.
  • Run or make the bar point?
    leobueno -- Sunday, 29 December 2019, at 6:13 p.m.
    • Run or make the bar point? -- VARIANTS and ROLLOUTS
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 5 January 2020, at 7:25 p.m.
    • Run or make the bar point? --VARIANTS and ROLLOUTS (corrected)
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 6 January 2020, at 3:50 a.m.