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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 30 October 2006, at 4:26 p.m.

In Response To: 41S-52S-42? (Stick)

There are several things going on here that make 23/21 13/9 better than making the 4 pt. The first and most obvious is 23/21 13/9 doesn't leave a direct shot. The race is even, the 9 pt. is valuable (esp. if White anchors up on your 3 pt.) and you're in no great hurry to build a board. You have a nice distribution, tidy up and see what the dice give you. The subtle part about 23/21 is the duplication of White's 2s & 4s. White needs ducks to anchor up and also to kick you off the anchor you're ready to make. Lastly, it leaves a stripped 8 point. A lot of these close decisions can be affected by how many checkers are on the 8 pt. If there were 4 instead of 3 the plays would be much closer I imagine.

Money Game
160
162
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 23/21 13/9 0.101
0.6% 14.1% 52.7% 47.3% 12.3% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.073 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 167358 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/4 6/4 0.070 (-0.031)
0.6% 15.0% 51.6% 48.4% 12.9% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.053 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 168333 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 24/22 13/9 0.046 (-0.055)
0.6% 13.2% 51.4% 48.6% 12.6% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.034 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 166432 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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