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Re: Rollout

Posted By: rew
Date: Tuesday, 7 November 2006, at 2:48 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

Im not convinced by this analysis. It is rarely correct to leave the anchor in these positions. The reasons are that the upside is smaller than one would think while the downside is bigger.

While it does look nice to be the one who plays in against the opps anchor, it rarely makes much of a difference in these mutual holding games when the race is somewhat close. Only if you have a big race lead is it worth a lot to get off your anchor and head for home.

On the downside you could say that it is only a 1 point board with a blot. But there are quite a few numbers that improve the attackers position significantly. 11 and 33 of course but also other numbers that points and leaves a shot are pretty strong.

This is a very normal considerations in these leave anchor or not positions. Realize that the gain is small and the prize is usually bigger than apparent and don't leave unless the reasons are compelling.

It is somewhat unclear to me how valuable making the 5 point is but I intuitively think it is much less important than stick argues. The gray play of playing 13/6 is only 0.025 behind 11 and 8 and i see this as partial evidence of that.

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