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Ten Things I Hate About the BG Experience

Posted By: Barry Silliman
Date: Tuesday, 28 October 2008, at 10:54 p.m.

In Response To: Ten Things I Hate About the BG Experience (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I found this link which explains how gnubg calculates luck:

http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+869

From that link, To calculate the luck rate, the bot looks at the position before the dice are rolled, and works out the average equity of the various positions resulting from each of the possible dice rolls. Then after the roll, the equity of the 'best move' will be either above or below that average.

So, the superior player will have a higher average equity from each of the possible dice rolls, since he will position his checkers better to have more good rolls, hence, a higher average equity than the novice player. The novice will consider the superior player lucky, even when the superior player rolls an 'average' or slightly above-average roll. But the gnubg calculations according to that link will show little or no luck to that roll.

My experience has been that the player with the higher calculated luck rate in any given match will be the winner a very high percentage of the time, but certainly not always.

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