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Pittsburgh recube action Rollout

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Tuesday, 24 February 2009, at 11:05 p.m.

In Response To: Pittsburgh recube action (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Interesting that everyone thought the decision was whether to double or wait a roll as I thought the take/pass decision was more interesting.

Barry cubed quickly and I thought he had made a good cube as I wasn't sure whether I was taking or dropping. Although I have 9 off I am really badly off if he hits the second checker. Still, he doesn't always hit the second checker, and he doesn't always close his ace point before I safety it or escape, so I judged that it was a close-clearish take.

I'd still have passed this vs. many players since I don't want to risk 4 points in a virtually skill-less position. I felt that I was slightly stronger than Barry, but Barry is a lot better than he & others think, as evidenced by the 2.7 he played against me in this match (better than my 3.4). I couldn't let this one go and took, Barry rolled 51 and closed his board, then hit the second checker. I hit a shot in the bearoff but it still wasn't enough to win the race and I lost.

2-ply thinks this is a huge blunder to cube, RO reverses it (with either 2-ply or 3-ply) and shows a pretty clear RD/T. The difference between 2-ply cube and 3-ply cube in this RO doesn't really make a difference.

The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?

Barry Silliman106


 '3X2X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' '

1X4O1O1X ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X

Matt Cohn-Geier36

Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA

• Barry Silliman doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5255(Money: +0.5255)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.9170
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0830
3.No double +0.8634 -0.0535
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Barry Silliman owns 2-cube0.77700.00000.0000-0.22300.02510.0034 +0.5255 +0.8634
Standard error0.00260.00000.0000-0.00260.00070.0003 0.0052 0.0124
Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 4-cube0.77100.00000.0000-0.22900.02500.0045 +1.0709 +0.9170
Standard error0.00300.00000.0000-0.00300.00090.0006 0.0128 0.0154
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
446 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 2293907848 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?

Barry Silliman106


 '3X2X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' '

1X4O1O1X ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X

Matt Cohn-Geier36

Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA

• Barry Silliman doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.4342(Money: +0.4360)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.9296
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0704
3.No double +0.8652 -0.0644
Proper cube action:Redouble, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player Barry Silliman owns 2-cube0.73230.00000.0000-0.26770.02530.0034 +0.4342 +0.8652
Standard error0.00220.00000.0000-0.00220.00060.0002 0.0044 0.0099
Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 4-cube0.77290.00000.0000-0.22710.02350.0040 +1.0872 +0.9296
Standard error0.00230.00000.0000-0.00230.00060.0005 0.0096 0.0113
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
992 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 749132503 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?

Barry Silliman106


 '3X2X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' '

1X4O1O1X ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X

Matt Cohn-Geier36

Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA

• Barry Silliman doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.2332)!

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.2382(Money: +0.2401)
0.6349 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3651 0.0265 0.0031
Cubeful equities:
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1.No double +0.4585
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.5415
3.Double, take +0.2253 -0.2332
Proper cube action:No redouble, take (30.1%)

The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?

Barry Silliman106


 '3X2X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' '

1X4O1O1X ' ' ' ' ' ' '1X

Matt Cohn-Geier36

Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA

• Barry Silliman doubles

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity +0.4908(Money: +0.4927)
0.7605 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2395 0.0256 0.0028
Cubeful equities:
3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
1.Double, take +0.8523
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1477
3.No double +0.7939 -0.0584
Proper cube action:Redouble, take

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