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Pittsburgh recube action Rollout
Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier In Response To: Pittsburgh recube action (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Tuesday, 24 February 2009, at 11:05 p.m.
Interesting that everyone thought the decision was whether to double or wait a roll as I thought the take/pass decision was more interesting.
Barry cubed quickly and I thought he had made a good cube as I wasn't sure whether I was taking or dropping. Although I have 9 off I am really badly off if he hits the second checker. Still, he doesn't always hit the second checker, and he doesn't always close his ace point before I safety it or escape, so I judged that it was a close-clearish take.
I'd still have passed this vs. many players since I don't want to risk 4 points in a virtually skill-less position. I felt that I was slightly stronger than Barry, but Barry is a lot better than he & others think, as evidenced by the 2.7 he played against me in this match (better than my 3.4). I couldn't let this one go and took, Barry rolled 51 and closed his board, then hit the second checker. I hit a shot in the bearoff but it still wasn't enough to win the race and I lost.
2-ply thinks this is a huge blunder to cube, RO reverses it (with either 2-ply or 3-ply) and shows a pretty clear RD/T. The difference between 2-ply cube and 3-ply cube in this RO doesn't really make a difference.
The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)
Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?
Barry Silliman 106
Matt Cohn-Geier 36 Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA
• Barry Silliman doubles
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.5255 (Money: +0.5255) Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0.9170 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0830 3. No double +0.8634 -0.0535 Proper cube action: Redouble, take Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Barry Silliman owns 2-cube 0.7770 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2230 0.0251 0.0034 +0.5255 +0.8634 Standard error 0.0026 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0026 0.0007 0.0003 0.0052 0.0124 Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 4-cube 0.7710 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2290 0.0250 0.0045 +1.0709 +0.9170 Standard error 0.0030 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0030 0.0009 0.0006 0.0128 0.0154 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 446 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 2293907848 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)
Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?
Barry Silliman 106
Matt Cohn-Geier 36 Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA
• Barry Silliman doubles
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.4342 (Money: +0.4360) Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0.9296 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0704 3. No double +0.8652 -0.0644 Proper cube action: Redouble, take Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Barry Silliman owns 2-cube 0.7323 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2677 0.0253 0.0034 +0.4342 +0.8652 Standard error 0.0022 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0022 0.0006 0.0002 0.0044 0.0099 Player Matt Cohn-Geier owns 4-cube 0.7729 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2271 0.0235 0.0040 +1.0872 +0.9296 Standard error 0.0023 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0023 0.0006 0.0005 0.0096 0.0113 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 992 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 749132503 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)
Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?
Barry Silliman 106
Matt Cohn-Geier 36 Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA
• Barry Silliman doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.2332)!
Cube decision 2-ply cubeless equity +0.2382 (Money: +0.2401) 0.6349 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3651 0.0265 0.0031 Cubeful equities: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 1. No double +0.4585 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.5415 3. Double, take +0.2253 -0.2332 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (30.1%)
The score (after 0 games) is: Barry Silliman 0, Matt Cohn-Geier 0 (match to 9 points)
Move number 42: Barry Silliman on roll, cube decision?
Barry Silliman 106
Matt Cohn-Geier 36 Position ID: XgAAILftgAARAA Match ID: AQEgAQAAAAAA
• Barry Silliman doubles
Cube decision 3-ply cubeless equity +0.4908 (Money: +0.4927) 0.7605 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2395 0.0256 0.0028 Cubeful equities: 3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster] 1. Double, take +0.8523 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.1477 3. No double +0.7939 -0.0584 Proper cube action: Redouble, take
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