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Gammon Win % with 2 up + Moving Spare

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 28 April 2009, at 6:20 a.m.

Another reference that may sometime be useful for estimating gammons, either won or lost. You have perfect spare distribution, your opponent holds the cube and has two men on the bar. We will be looking at the effect of moving the spare that is currently on your opponent's six point back pip by pip into his outfield and eventually all the way around to your outfield.

As many of you probably know, the diagrammed positions yields ~40% gammons.

Player 098


2X2X2X2X2X3X ' ' ' ' ' '

2O2O2O3O3O2O ' ' '1O ' '

Player 161

Position ID: 27YDAGDb7oYAAA Match ID: QYkMAAAAAAAA

The list below lists where the spare currently on the 6pt is moved to and the new percentage of gammons won for the bottom player, Blue.

  • 7pt = 43.5%
  • 8pt = 45.5%
  • 9pt = 47.5%
  • 10pt = 49.5%
  • 11pt = 51.5%
  • 12pt = 53.5%
  • 13pt = 56.5%
  • 14pt = 58.5%
  • 15pt = 61%
  • 16pt = 63%
  • 17pt = 65%
  • 18pt = 67%

You may note the two biggest blips in the pattern come when the spare checker makes a crossover, either from the 6pt to the 7pt which produces 3.5% more gammon losses or from the 12pt to the 13pt which produces 3% more gammon losses. Aside from those two crossover blips, it keeps an almost even pattern throughout with every pip losing ~2% more gammons than the previous position.

A pip is often quoted as being worth a certain win % in a race, depending on the length of that race. Here it seems a pip without crossover can be labeled as 2% also, gammon losses that is.

Stick

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