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Hit or don't hit -- what's the reasoning?

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Friday, 8 May 2009, at 6:39 p.m.

Match to 7, Tied at 0-0
Blue to play 2-5
White82

Blue59
Position Id: 29UDBAK9nRsAAA
Match Id: QQn1AAAAAAAA

I was sent this problem -- I sent my reasoning back, and apparently got the right answer (and even nearly crunched some numbers right), but without that much confidence. I'd like to see how people reason through a problem like this.

JLee

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