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An example of donkage + false ER

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 15 May 2009, at 8:29 p.m.

I'm going through my match against Bill Riles still and I come upon the play below. Now in the match I made the donk play listed as #2. I have no idea, don't ask me why, I know hitting is correct by a mile...so much of a mile that I can't believe GNU's eval of it being wrong by only .05 or thereabouts.

I assume most people would either realize their error, gloss over it, and accept it (and later quote their match ER) or if they truly don't realize how bad their play is they might roll it out. The problem is with option #1 (or some ppl who I know do option #2 but then revert to 2 ply once the RO shows it as a monster blunder). One needs to roll out errors also to get an error rate as close to what might be a 'true' error rate as possible. In fact, if I was overly obsessive, I'd extend this rollout to knock out some of the variance that's left in it because there's still a lot left. I'm a lot more ok with it being a .15 blunder than GNU's initial evaluation and will not extend it further. Just mentioning...

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 6, user 2 (match to 11 points)

gnubg	122
user	143
Position ID: cG+DAUjTNpEBBg Match ID: EQFxAWAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	8/2*	-0.0240
			0.5920 0.3447 0.0081 - 0.4080 0.1159 0.0046
•	2	2	11/7 8/6	-0.0731 ( -0.0491)
			0.5738 0.2899 0.0084 - 0.4262 0.1088 0.0034

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	8/2*	+0.0691
			0.6125 0.3599 0.0155 - 0.3875 0.1078 0.0058 +0.3344 +0.0691 0.0045 0.0091 0.0066 - 0.0045 0.0042 0.0013 0.0148 0.0254
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858734815 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	11/7 8/6	-0.0786 ( -0.1478)
			0.5766 0.3088 0.0068 - 0.4234 0.1099 0.0043 +0.2411 -0.0786 0.0052 0.0061 0.0015 - 0.0052 0.0032 0.0007 0.0149 0.0235
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 858734815 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• An example of donkage + false ER
  Stick -- Friday, 15 May 2009, at 8:29 p.m.
  • An example of donkage + false ER
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 16 May 2009, at 2:46 p.m.
  • Apples and oranges
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 May 2009, at 4:37 p.m.