So, I was playing a match on GG, and a non-interesting position came up:
The score (after 2 games) is: cubed2death 4, kilted 4 (match to 7 points)
Move number 54: kilted on roll, cube decision?
| cubed2death | 11 |
|---|---|
| |
| kilted | 11 |
Position ID: nQAAwC4AAAAAAA Match ID: UQngAEAAIAAA | |
• kilted doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.569 | (Money: +0.569) | |
| 0.784 0.000 0.000 - 0.216 0.000 0.000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.000 | |
| 2. | Double, take | +1.134 | +0.134 |
| 3. | No double | +0.787 | -0.213 |
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, pass | ||
My opponent was thinking about it, and I mentioned to him that it was an easy MET to do the take/drop on - 22% in this position, and -3,-1 is 25%. So, easy pass. However, this got me thinking about ELO's and MWC. At what ELO difference between players does this become a take? Also, in a 1pt match, what ELO difference constitutes a 51-49, 52-48 etc.
So, my core question here is what ELO difference in skill does each 1% swing in MWC for a 1pt match equal? Also, entirely related, what ER difference is this also? i.e. If I consider myself to be a 4ER player, and I am playing a 3ER player, what does this translate to in MET terms, as obviously the MET changes based on skill differential.
In my example above, some quick calculations indicated to me that I needed to be a 54-46 favorite in overall skill difference for this position to become a take. Obviously, that must be around 150 ELO difference - but exactly what?
I think this could be a very useful tool for making these cube decisions OTB.
I suspect that Bob or Chuck may be the ideal ones to answer this question, but I welcome any and all input.