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Correct to double and correct to beaver

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 31 July 2009, at 1:05 a.m.

In Robertie's Advanced Backgammon, there is a contrived position where, assuming the Jacoby rule, it is correct for White to double and correct for Black to beaver. I don't have the book with me, but the position was something like this: White has 14 checkers on his ace point; Black has three checkers on each of the remaining points in White's home table; White's 15th checker is at the edge of Black's 5-prime.

A crucial part of the analysis is the assumption that if White fails to leap the prime immediately and Black (re)doubles, then White must drop. The question I have is, is this really a drop?

Rolling the position out a few times by hand seemed to confirm my suspicion that there is a good chance that Black will roll double-4's or something similarly awkward early on. It then is not trivial to rebuild the 6-prime, and White has decent chances of jokering over Black's blockade and winning a gammon.

Blindly rolling out the position with gnubg suggests that the position is a huge take for White, but I don't trust gnubg's ability to roll the prime correctly over such a long distance.

Has anyone written special-purpose routines to roll primes? It seems that a relatively straightforward dynamic program should be able to play Black's side nearly optimally.

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