Interesting no one considered what might be the best play! After 1296 games it's still TCTC. I agree that 9/4 8/3 makes Blue too awkward but what about play B? What play B does is strip away the escaping six hit by leaving 3 blots instead of two. What Snowie is trying to tell us is that 8/3 by itself isn't that bad, it's only one spare on the 3 pt. [not like 9/4 which would be 2] It is also telling us the importance of White escaping with tempo is more important than 3 blots. If 20/10(2) is played and White does throw that hit White gets to accomplish many good things at once. First White escapes a back checker, his 'spare' on the 2 pt. Second he does it with tempo, sending you back around the board. Third he may hit two blots if he throws a 6-1, and a 6-3 aor 6-5 cover the blot on his own 3 pt. This leaves him with total outfield control. The cost of all this? 3 blots and a direct ace shot ... seems odd that it is worth it. I'll probably extend this rollout and try to make sense of it all later. Just woke up :) Btw, Ian broke the tie, you played 20/15(2) 8/3 9/4.
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 20/10(2) | 0.679 | |
| 0.8% 21.0% 78.2% 21.8% 2.4% 0.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.758 ±0.011. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 30807 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 20/15(2) 15/10 8/3 | 0.676 (-0.003) | |
| 1.2% 22.3% 77.6% 22.4% 2.8% 0.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.758 ±0.011. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 31559 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 20/15(2) 9/4 8/3 | 0.624 (-0.054) | |
| 0.9% 20.2% 76.4% 23.6% 2.7% 0.1% | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.711 ±0.022. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 6937 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database. | ||||