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62S, 43U 54 redux

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 6:34 p.m.

This was discussed here during MC. I just now got a RO finished. It is 5184 games for top 4 plays and still inconclusive. The 2nd choice is .43 JSD behind and 3rd and 4th are 2.1 and 2.6

Falafel over the board played 18/13 11/7. My choice of 11/2 is o.k.. I am surprised how strong 18/13 11/7 is.

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0

Move number 6: user to play 45

gnubg	160
user	159
Position ID: 4HPwAQXgc+RBIA Match ID: cAkWAAAAAAAA

• user moves 11/2

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.132661
	0.546351 0.137447 0.004062 - 0.453649 0.098239 0.003311
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.191577
2.	Double, pass	+1.000000	+0.808423
3.	Double, take	-0.043159	-0.234736
Proper cube action:		No double, take (22.5%)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.303)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	18/13 11/7	-0.102363
			0.477865 0.092219 0.003247 - 0.522135 0.110660 0.003736 -0.063201 -0.102363 0.000740 0.000746 0.000153 - 0.000740 0.000847 0.000230 0.001874 0.004451
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/20 18/13	-0.105100 ( -0.002737)
			0.479082 0.086533 0.003423 - 0.520918 0.111912 0.004362 -0.068154 -0.105100 0.000753 0.000728 0.000166 - 0.000753 0.000804 0.000216 0.001802 0.004469
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	11/2	-0.117345 ( -0.014982)
			0.475101 0.114961 0.005026 - 0.524899 0.141210 0.005881 -0.076901 -0.117345 0.000818 0.000794 0.000200 - 0.000818 0.000966 0.000409 0.002292 0.005705
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	18/13 8/4*	-0.121060 ( -0.018697)
			0.474855 0.109753 0.003980 - 0.525145 0.132495 0.006134 -0.075186 -0.121060 0.000844 0.000789 0.000200 - 0.000844 0.000886 0.000447 0.002236 0.005684
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	24/20 11/6	-0.141314 ( -0.038951)
			0.472924 0.088069 0.003243 - 0.527076 0.125045 0.004391 -0.092276 -0.141314 0.001428 0.001425 0.000337 - 0.001428 0.001704 0.000333 0.003440 0.008300
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1290 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Three other plays were all in the rollout:

6. Rollout 18/14 11/6 Eq.: -0.145047 ( -0.042684)

0.467835 0.094799 0.002993 - 0.532165 0.123767 0.005035 CL -0.095339 CF -0.145047

[0.001388 0.001370 0.000439 - 0.001388 0.001832 0.000748 CL 0.003878 CF 0.009428]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1490 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

7. Rollout 13/4* Eq.: -0.148376 ( -0.046013)

0.472121 0.110807 0.004905 - 0.527879 0.148399 0.008164 CL -0.096608 CF -0.148376

[0.001669 0.001559 0.000385 - 0.001669 0.001837 0.000510 CL 0.004515 CF 0.011120]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1350 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

8. Rollout 11/6 8/4* Eq.: -0.170852 ( -0.068489)

0.464657 0.106004 0.003772 - 0.535343 0.143070 0.007193 CL -0.111173 CF -0.170852

[0.002088 0.002235 0.000728 - 0.002088 0.002493 0.000659 CL 0.005494 CF 0.014256]

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

695 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 860097627 and quasi-random dice

Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 62S, 43U 54 redux
  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 6:34 p.m.
  • 62S, 43U 54 redux
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 7:49 p.m.
    • 62S, 43U 54 redux
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 20 August 2009, at 7:56 p.m.