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Baffled by bots here. Help!

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Thursday, 27 August 2009, at 2:25 p.m.

I came across this because GNU 4-ply said it was a bad double.

1. Both these rollouts with XG and GNU are supposed to be with the g11 MET. Anyone got a clue why there is a big difference?

2. WTF with GNU. The position is in the Two-Sided Database. Why would 1-ply and 2-ply be better than 3-ply and 4-ply here?

is wwwcars

score: 2
pip: 14
11
5 point match











11
 pip: 17
score: 3

is Anterico
XGID=--A-AAA------------b----b-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
Player Winning Chances: 73.54% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.46% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.471
Double:+1.549
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.626 (-0.251)
Double/Take:+0.877
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.123)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+0.623...+0.630)
Confidence Double: ± 0.000 (+0.877...+0.877)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1.0 second

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.455(Money: +0.455)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.847
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.153
3.No double +0.647 -0.199
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.7280.0000.000-0.2720.0000.000 +0.455 +0.647
Standard error0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.001 0.001
Player wwwcars owns 2-cube0.7320.0000.000-0.2680.0000.000 +1.529 +0.847
Standard error0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.000 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
20736 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 867000880 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity +0.387(Money: +0.387)
0.694 0.000 0.000 - 0.306 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.600
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.400
3.Double, take +0.544 -0.055
Proper cube action:No double, take (12.2%)

Cube decision
3-ply cubeless equity +0.386(Money: +0.386)
0.693 0.000 0.000 - 0.307 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +0.599
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.401
3.Double, take +0.541 -0.059
Proper cube action:No double, take (12.8%)

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity +0.434(Money: +0.434)
0.717 0.000 0.000 - 0.283 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.731
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.269
3.No double +0.692 -0.039
Proper cube action:Double, take

Cube decision
1-ply cubeless equity +0.434(Money: +0.434)
0.717 0.000 0.000 - 0.283 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.731
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.269
3.No double +0.725 -0.006
Proper cube action:Double, take

Cube decision
0-ply cubeless equity +0.471(Money: +0.471)
0.735 0.000 0.000 - 0.265 0.000 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.000
2.Double, take +1.439 +0.439
3.No double +0.751 -0.249
Proper cube action:Double, pass

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