It seemed more clear to me that 3/off was wrong than whether it was correct to go for the greed here or not. 3/off strips a point and it's not the back point. Generally this is a bad idea that can lead to problems down the road. It's virtually a tossup on whether or not to go for the G. I am heavily favored to save the G, only needing 10 crossovers (43 pips) to get all my men in my homeboard. Since you have yet to bearoff any men you'll have to roll well or I'll have to roll poorly for you to get the G. Figuring out that taking one off wins 1.8% more Gs but loses 1% more games OTB is impressive. If you can do that, my hat is off to you. The normal 'exchange rate' is 2x as many gammons as wins...so if you won 2% more gammons and lost 1% more games then it would be a virtual tossup but as it stands now the safe play is out in front.
Only one person voted to play 5/4 5/3 (wtg Peter). The voting is tied between 3/off and 4/1. Since I didn't initially rollout 4/1 I am going to play 3/off. 4/1 is behind by .04 before a rollout. I will roll it out today but I didn't see much upside to it aside from behind able to attack if I run off the anchor. I won't likely run off the anchor for a couple of turns though, and by then your distribution/attacks won't be so well placed, I don't like 4/1 and obviously didn't seriously consider it. [since I didn't put it in the rollout]
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| Board image courtesy of GO-Figure | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
| 1 | R | 5/3 5/4 | 1.015 | |
| 0.5% 14.3% 94.4% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 1.012 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 1.035 ±0.005, - live cube: 1.012 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 45505 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 2 | R | 5/3 1/off | 1.012 (-0.003) | |
| 0.6% 16.1% 93.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 1.007 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 1.036 ±0.004, - live cube: 1.007 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 54126 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||
| 3 | R | 3/off | 1.000 (-0.015) | |
| 0.6% 17.3% 92.4% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% | ||||
| Live cube rollout: 0.996 | ||||
| 95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 1.028 ±0.005, - live cube: 0.996 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 46467 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database. | ||||