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Safe Harbor Games Dice - I can confirm this finding on a sample set 10 times larger

Posted By: Michael Petch
Date: Monday, 28 September 2009, at 2:40 a.m.

In Response To: Safe Harbor Games Dice (W Womack)

I wish I saw this earlier in the day. I was very skeptical at this post but I decided to take all my SHG and WGC data. My opinion was that even a sample set of 20,000 rolls although small seemed awfully different from the expected results.

I first took all of my recorded matches that I have played - 281 matches, average just under 300 rolls each (3 to 11ptrs). I preferred taking my matches only because I know none of them have corrupt data (If you kibitz someone else and record the match, frequently the logs are screwed up). All first rolls of each game have been excluded. Here is what I found:

Rolls 11 1236
Rolls 21 4924
Rolls 22 1261
Rolls 31 4946
Rolls 32 4801
Rolls 33 1195
Rolls 41 4850
Rolls 42 4887
Rolls 43 4906
Rolls 44 1195
Rolls 51 4870
Rolls 52 4966
Rolls 53 4870
Rolls 54 4872
Rolls 55 1214
Rolls 61 4920
Rolls 62 4754
Rolls 63 4933
Rolls 64 4788
Rolls 65 4886
Rolls 66 1244
Total Rolls 80518

Doubles do in fact show up less than expected. If you take all the doubles and divide it by total rolls 7345/80518 = 9.122%. That figure tracks very close to Womack's observations.

I then took all the matches I have from SHG (1577 matches, ~630k rolls) and got these results:

Rolls 11 9828
Rolls 21 38550
Rolls 22 9706
Rolls 31 38351
Rolls 32 37998
Rolls 33 9441
Rolls 41 37625
Rolls 42 37865
Rolls 43 38197
Rolls 44 9532
Rolls 51 37998
Rolls 52 38057
Rolls 53 37710
Rolls 54 38186
Rolls 55 9645
Rolls 61 37802
Rolls 62 37893
Rolls 63 38396
Rolls 64 38181
Rolls 65 37773
Rolls 66 9605
Total Rolls 628339

Total doubles are about 57757 for a percentage of total rolls of 9.192%

Excluding all other rolls, I believe statistically doubles are way off expected results, and the results are way too reproducible between Womack's resutls and these. ~9.2% seems to be some magical number.

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