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An Open Letter to SHG Players

Posted By: Michael Petch
Date: Monday, 19 October 2009, at 11:32 a.m.

In Response To: An Open Letter to SHG Players (Havard Raddum)

I have data for runs and sequences (short ones). Given that the sample sets (rolls) we are dealing with are on the order of 100's of thousands long runs and sequences can't easily be said to be within statistical norms (simple binomial test falls apart with limited samples).

Short runs and sequences were close to expectated in .28 (along with the other stats). Just not so with the last 2 releases (32 and .33).

The problem with .28 though is that 19 out of 20 people didn't think they were fair. Unfortunately, some of the problem is pshychological (people see runs that never happened, or they remember the things that get the most emotional response), and part of it is a lack of basic understanding of statistics. Will mentioned the story of the 35 year BG veteran who told us that saying "the chance of a double appearing is 1 in 6" was subjective.

Also foound it funny that when I asked someone to prove the dice were bad (Something they were claiming) they told me it is impossible to prove a negative (I bet they are a theist too lol). So people believe in certain myths about logic and propogate them and use them as an argument not to study the dice.

When I ask people "why not do your own study", the common response is "we know they are bad, so we don't need to prove anything". The reality is most wouldn't know where to start, and those that do likely wouldn't because the chances are they already know they'd get the same data we are.

For anyone who is curious the current dice stats for .33 are here:

http://www.capp-sysware.com/analysis/shgnewdc33_stats.txt

The data on that link may change through out the course of the day as data is added.

Messages In This Thread

• An Open Letter to SHG Players
  W Womack -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 8:55 a.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Michael Petch -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 10:08 a.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players - Up to version .34 in past 2 hours
      Michael Petch -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 2:32 p.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Havard Raddum -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 10:44 a.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players
      Michael Petch -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 11:32 a.m.
      • An Open Letter to SHG Players
        Neil Robins -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 12:14 p.m.
        • An Open Letter to SHG Players
          W Womack -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 1:56 p.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Phil Simborg -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 1:13 p.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Jason Lee -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 5:55 p.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 10:22 p.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players
      Jason Lee -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 10:47 p.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players
      W Womack -- Monday, 19 October 2009, at 11:52 p.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 2:54 a.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players
      W Womack -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 4:37 a.m.
      • An Open Letter to SHG Players
        Frank_N_Stein -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 6:25 p.m.
        • An Open Letter to SHG Players
          W Womack -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 6:41 p.m.
          • An Open Letter to SHG Players
            Frank_N_Stein -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 3:11 a.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 5:40 a.m.
      • An Open Letter to SHG Players
        W Womack -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 2:44 p.m.
  • SHG Upgrading BG to 3.0.35 tomorrow morning
    Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 6:20 a.m.
    • SHG Upgrading BG to 3.0.35 tomorrow morning
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 2:25 p.m.
  • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 2:38 p.m.
    • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
      Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 8:27 p.m.
      • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 20 October 2009, at 9:48 p.m.
        • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 4:36 p.m.
    • Old story - Cribbage
      Michael Petch -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 7:21 a.m.
    • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
      Phil Simborg -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 4:23 p.m.
    • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 21 October 2009, at 7:02 p.m.
    • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
      J. Dawkins -- Monday, 26 October 2009, at 8:56 p.m.
      • Old story, but maybe worth repeating
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 27 October 2009, at 9:59 p.m.
      • 3-away 7-away cube action
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 28 October 2009, at 12:37 a.m.
        • I'm going to repeat this subject line until I get it right *NM*
          Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 28 October 2009, at 1:07 a.m.
  • An Open Letter to SHG Players
    Caryl Stephanson -- Monday, 26 October 2009, at 7:45 p.m.
    • An Open Letter to SHG Players
      Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 27 October 2009, at 8:43 a.m.
      • An Open Letter to SHG Players
        Caryl Stephanson -- Tuesday, 27 October 2009, at 7:21 p.m.