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BGonline.org Forums
An Open Letter to SHG Players
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: An Open Letter to SHG Players (W Womack)
Date: Monday, 19 October 2009, at 10:22 p.m.
My original post meet with some skepticism
Yes, it did, and that is understandable and good. In the past 17 years (FIBS began in 1992) we've seen countless complaints about dice, almost no data, and a lot of ignorant opinionating. On many such occasions, claimants have obviously not known probabilities from peanuts, or have been emotionally wrapped up with their subjective experiences. But I recall other occasions where claimants initially presented themselves as objective and competent gatherers and analyzers of facts, but who in response to skeptical inquiries, declined to reveal their supposedly existent data.
In response to your original post, Petter Bengtsson and Philippe Michel asked questions that revealed errors in your analysis, which you corrected. Jason Lee reposted the dice whiner's complaint form, to which you also responded appropriately --I do not think Jason intended to dismiss your claim out of hand -- and your answer confirmed that you had actual data and were pursuing its analysis conscientiously and with a sufficient grasp of the subject.
Kudos to you, Neil Robins and Michael Petch for gathering and parsing data, and for focusing on facts, and for working with Safe Harbor Games to acknowledge (check!) fix (not yet!) and explain (not yet!) the problem.
ad 1 you've "ruined the dice" ? How absurd.
ad 2 you're "biased" ? Nothing you've written suggests that you are, and Michael Petch collected confirming data independently.
ad 3 your "qualifications" ? There does not seem to be any fault in how you have gone about tackling the problem.
ad 4 players should "vote" on which skewed distribution of generatored dice they prefer ? That's very funny.
ad 5 re repeating doublets and other "unbelievable" sequences in live backgammon -- Of course they happen, with two fair dice rolled fairly from a well-shaken cup, just as if ... as if a fair online dice generator was rolling the dice!
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