Kit says: I think Sylvester should turn the cube here. He has a huge racing lead, which means Ballard pretty much has to hit to win. Sylvester has the two and three points for landing places, so he could easily bring the position home without leaving a shot. In addition Ballard will be forced to do something -- on the next roll he can probably make his four point, but after that something will have to give. In fact, I'm far from convinced that Ballard has a take.
Stick adds: I have the advantage of what the bots know nowadays and that is basically any 5 pt. holding game where you've retained your board and your opponent has the mid to clear and no additional outside points (other than the 8) it is a take. [money] I also thought this wasn't a double for Sylvester but I thought it more of a ND than the rollout showed. His open four point combined with Ballard having a man on the ace which is definitely an asset at this point in time led me to a larger ND than the rollout shows.
The score (after 1 game) is: Nack 1, Joe 0 (match to 19 points)
| Nack | 140 |
|---|---|
| |
| Joe | 103 |
Position ID: rLvAgCE2PgcHAA Match ID: cIlsAhAAAAAA | |
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.4073 | (Money: +0.4055) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | No double | +0.6560 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.3440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | Double, take | +0.6434 | -0.0126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | No double, take (3.5%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063319511 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stick says: I didn't put this in the original post but it is quite a misplay of what I think most people would play now, making the strong prime + board instead of burying a checker on the ace to play 'safe' for a turn. Aces are somewhat duped if he makes the correct play. If I knew my opponent would make this sort of mistake I'd have cubed earlier! =)
The score (after 1 game) is: Nack 1, Joe 0 (match to 19 points)
Move number 25: Nack to play 26
| Nack | 140 |
|---|---|
| |
| Joe | 99 |
Position ID: bjwHBwCsu8CAIQ Match ID: MAF5AhAAAAAA | |
• Nack moves 7/1 6/4
Alert: doubtful move ( -0.062)
| # | Ply | Move | Equity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 13/7 6/4 | -0.4877 | |
| 0.3591 0.0654 0.0013 - 0.6409 0.1066 0.0018 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | 13/11 13/7 | -0.5009 ( -0.0132) | |
| 0.3461 0.0602 0.0012 - 0.6539 0.0868 0.0012 | ||||
| • | 3 | 2 | 7/1 6/4 | -0.5494 ( -0.0617) |
| 0.3393 0.0634 0.0012 - 0.6607 0.1048 0.0016 | ||||
Kit says: Once again, I think Sylvester should double for basically the same reasons as before. If he makes any serious improvement such as 61 (the bar point), 42 (the four point), 51 (the ace point) or any doubles he will lose his market. Again, I'm not all that convinced that Ballard has a take here.
Stick adds: Just as Kit stands behind his original analysis there's no way this can be a cube if the first position wasn't a cube, which is why I didn't roll it out. Nack has improved, even if he did misplay it, and Joe did not. Larger ND for sure than position #1.
The score (after 1 game) is: Nack 1, Joe 0 (match to 19 points)
| Nack | 132 |
|---|---|
| |
| Joe | 99 |
Position ID: 2W7AgCFuPAcHAA Match ID: cIl4AhAAAAAA | |
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.3621 | (Money: +0.3633) | |
| 0.6607 0.1048 0.0016 - 0.3393 0.0634 0.0012 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | +0.5494 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.4506 |
| 3. | Double, take | +0.5037 | -0.0457 |
| Proper cube action: | No double, take (9.2%) | ||
Kit says: Now the double is crystal clear. Sylvester has made the bar point, making it much more likely that he will be able to bring his men in safely, and he has a substantial lead in the race. In addition, Ballard's back man is suddenly starting to be in trouble. (Nack passes)
Sylvester's position has gotten strong enough that Ballard must pass. He is way behind in the race, has no immediate prospect of getting more than an indirect shot, and his back man may be pounced on at an unfortunate moment. Granted he is not in much gammon danger holding the advanced anchor, but his winning chances do not justify a take here.
Stick adds: In most 'normal' holding game positions where you hold the 5 anchor and your opponent is coming home, trying to clear the mid and has made his own bar point the take/pass decision is based mainly upon the race. Here there are a couple offsetting things happening. First of all, having the bar point made will only help in the immediate future. In other words, Sylvester still ranks to leave indirects and will not likely have more than 1 turn to use the bar as a landing point for both checkers. Typically with the bar you add 65 to your combo of clearing and having many turns to roll it, or doubles. Another thing to question is Nack's straggler on the ace doesn't seem to be an asset anymore. I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a hindrance but I'd pretty much nullify its value, leaning slightly towards hindering Nack's position than helping it, as it may soon be attacked.
Nack also hurt his position rolls ago by not making points in order and now he is likely to have an open two point if he does hit his shot. This will cost him a couple turns before he can recube in all likelyhood if he does hit the shot as one of his spares will be wrapped up in making the ace point and he'll have to free another back man before he recubes. Still taking all these seemingly negative aspects of the position into account he still has a thin take! Joe's position is a little awkward itself esp. w/an unmade 4 pt. that isn't likely to get made. He will leave the indirects and Nack's board isn't terrible, 4 pts in a row ain't too shabby, but it could have been better and I think the take would have been a lot larger. I may roll out other sample cube positions and post them later.
The score (after 1 game) is: Nack 1, Joe 0 (match to 19 points)
Move number 28: Joe on roll, cube decision?
| Nack | 121 |
|---|---|
| |
| Joe | 92 |
Position ID: 2W4FgCFuvA0GAA Match ID: cAlgAhAAAAAA | |
• Joe doubles
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.5332 | (Money: +0.5321) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.9749 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0251 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.8458 | -0.1291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Double, take | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063358289 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||