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Re: Rollouts + Explanations

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 18 May 2007, at 4:40 a.m.

In Response To: Rollouts + Explanations (Stick)

In the first position, the rollout says:

ND +0.6560 +/- 0.0132 .... (2 times the SE)

DT +0.6434 +/- 0.0186 .... (ditto)

Since the confidence intervals overlap, and especially since Gnubg 2-ply tends to overestimate the defender's equity in 20-point holding games, which can lead to bad takes later, which can inflate the ND equity, this rollout doesn't tell us whether Sylvester should double or not. But the take is clear.

In the second cube decision position, Sylvester's side of the board probably hasn't improved (because he's got one less spare to play bad small numbers with), but he did move a spare he didn't need on the 6 point to the 2 point, so he can now play 5-1 effectively, and 3-1 too, though he'd rather not hit loose on the ace point. Also, Sylvester was able to play 6/2 without hurting the distribution of spares on the 6, 8 and 13 points.

I might be curious enough to roll out Blue's position versus White's position on Blue's previous turn, sometime.

In the last cube decision, an extended rollout might (or might not) push Sylvester's DT equity closer to 1.000, but I would accept the result as is as showing that Ballard had a take.

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