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DMP favorite after opening 41?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 8 December 2009, at 8:35 p.m.

In Response To: DMP favorite after opening 41? (Paul Weaver)

Is 41 the worst opening roll? I think so.

If your questions refers to money, then the rollouts say "yes." Averaging the bots, 41S is -.0022 (Snowie and XG -.0020, Gnu -.0025). [A decade ago thought by some to be the worst but isn't close, 21$ is +.0129 (Snowie +.0070, Gnu +.0216, XG +.0100).]

However, if your question refers to DMP (as it seems to in context), then according to the long Gnu rollouts on this site, worst is 51S at -.0028 (with 51$ at -.0029).

Here is the DMP ranking of the rolls (with optimal plays) from worst to best: 51S = -.0028, 52S = -.0002, 43Z = .0013, 32S = .0032, 41S = .0043 (fifth worst), 64R = .0065, 63S = .0123, 62S = .0134, 21$ = .0137, 54S = .0143, 53P = +.0288. There are no rollouts there for the obvious best-play choices of 65R, 61P, 42P and 31P.

At -1-2pC, I agree with Neil that it is right to take (not use the free drop) with 41S, drop with 51, and drop with 52S against a weaker player.

In the 1970s, experts typically speculated that 51 or 52 was the worst opening roll for money (other scores were rarely mentioned). They turned out to be wrong, but by an odd coincidence they were right at DMP.

Nack

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