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Long XG 4 ply RO of opening 41

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 9 December 2009, at 3:46 a.m.

In Response To: Long XG 4 ply RO of opening 41 (Timothy Chow)

MCG: I believe 51$ is marginally worse than 41$.

Tim: You mean in terms of equity lost, compared to splitting? According to Stick's rollouts, GNU agrees with you but Snowie (live cube) doesn't, and I'd be a little surprised if XG does too, given how strongly it seems to prefer 41S to 41$.

Nack: I wasn't sure which score was being addressed in this part of the thread, but assuming it is money, then I also opine that 41$ is a greater theoretical error than 51$.

If we weight the XG 3-ply rollout (127 trials) and the XG 4-ply rollout (stronger ply but only 25k trials) equally, XG value for opening 41 is [S $15]. Gnu is [S $9]. Snowie is [S $22]. If the three bots are weighted equally, the average is [S $15].

For opening 51, Snowie is [S $12] and Gnu is [S $10]. I don't have an XG rollout yet, but it would have to be [S $23] in order to bring the bot average up to [S $15]. I doubt it will be that high.

Nack

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