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I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet

Posted By: Dorn Bishop
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 7:25 a.m.

In Response To: I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet (neilkaz)

OTB assumptions (which may be way off): With four checkers off and that board structure, Black wins cubeless about 17% of the time.

Now, if Black drops, he has about 16% MWC. If Black takes and loses, he has about 5% MWC. If Black takes and wins, he has 50% MWC. So Black is risking 11% to gain to gain 34%, and therefore has about a 24% drop/take point. So far, that makes it look like a drop but re-cube vig has to also be taken into account.

Black does have some re-cube equity. White's drop/take point on the recube is 50%. So, if Black knew that he was going to have a perfectly efficient re-cube, he would only need 50% x 24% = 12% cubeless winning chances in order to take. That's an easy take in this position but it's also a pipe dream: Black might get a somewhat efficient re-cube, but a lot of the time he won't. In fact, the more I look at it, the re-cube will probably be pretty inefficient especially since there is not much game left, and Black may need to re-whip when he is still a substantial dog based merely on the possibility of rolling doubles or hitting a shot from the bar. In other words, with Black's doubling window opening at something like 8% and closing at 50%, Black will often not have the luxury of taking a shake in order to get closer to that 50% mark.

So, the more I look at this, the more convinced I am that it is a pass.

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