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I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet

Posted By: Dorn Bishop
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet (John O'Hagan)

Thanks, John; I shouldn't tackle these things late at night. Mistakenly thought redouble would be for the match. On the other hand, that just reduces Black's re-cube vig and only makes me more inclined to pass. In fact, my initial estimate of 17% wins for Black was cubeful, which was a double-counting error since I later factored in re-cube vig. I should have used a cubeless estimate, which is probably 1-2 percent less than 17%.

Bottom line: Black's take point is still 24% and I don't see how his re-cube vig can be so efficient as to compensate for the mere 15-16% cubeless wins that he gets from here.

I pass.

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