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Deferred free drop

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 11:44 p.m.

In Response To: Deferred free drop (Maik Stiebler)

Let's try a crude estimate for the value of the deferred free drop at -1-4. Having no rollouts for 31P, 42P, 61P and 65R, I'll use the respective DMP evals of .1080, .0720, .0680 and .0490. The other DMP equities (for 53P, 54S, 21$, 62S, 63S, 64R, 41S, 32S, 43Z, 52S and 51S, rolled out) are .0288, .0143, .0137, .0134, .0123, .0065, .0043, .0032, .0013, -.0002 and -.0028. The average of all fifteen is .0061.

Either the last number is way wrong or I am missing your point completely.

Yikes. Thanks, Mark, for checking my math, and sorry to all. The average of the fifteen numbers above (this time done with a calculator instead of in my head) is .0261 (not .0061).

Making that correction and parallelling the logic outlined in my previous post, the average reply equity would be .0261 x 1.6 = .0418. Averaging that with .0261 yields .034, and dividing by two comes to .017 (not .004). Multiplying by 36.5% yields .0062 (not .0015).

According to the G11, start-over equity at 1a-2a is approx. 1.2% MWC equalling approx. 0.024 DMP-EMG.

Jeez, I wish I'd known it can be looked up :)

Assuming that you/G11 mean the same thing as I do by "start-over equity," I got .017 (underlined above). The difference (between .017 and .024) could be that (a) I underestimated the volatility of second roll situations (e.g., the added existence of doublets deserve a greater increase than I speculated) and/or (b) that my Gnu rollout equities for the first roll situations are more accurate than the eval equities G11 is using.

It's probably some of each, though (a) rates to be a bigger factor than (b), so say we use .022 for the startover equity. It still has to be multiplied by the percentage of time that the trailer will get a simple win (I estimated 36.5%) in order to figure out the breakeven drop/take point at -1-4. If .022 and 36.5% are reasonable, then the breakeven is .008 (bumped up from my .0062).

Extrapolating with educated guesswork at the given scores, I think the following opening rolls should be dropped.

-1-2..... 51 52(tie)
-1-4..... 51 52 43 32 41 64
-1-6..... 51 52 43 32 41 64
-1-8..... 51 52 43 32 41 64 63 62 21 54
-1-10... 51 52 43 32 41 64 63 62 21 54
-1-12... 51 52 43 32 41 64 63 62 21 54 53?

Naturally, I welcome any (informed) counter-opinions.

Nack

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