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This was from the LA Masters semis and...
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet (neilkaz)
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 11:54 p.m.
I was White playing Justin Nunez who was Black. I believe that I am quite familiar with these endgames and noting that my spares have yet to achieve perfect distribution, felt that Black could only win about 16.5% cubeless.
Justin would have about 16% ME if he passes per both Neil's Numbers and the rolled out GNU Supremo MET (Patience please..it comes out in about a month when we finish). He has 15 2/3& per g11.
I assumed that he'd recube no matter what since he's down 12-4C if he loses. When he recubes to 8 and wins, he wins a tad over 84% of the matches. So lets estimate 84% x 16.5% = less than 14% so unless I've underestimated his winning chances in this game, it seems that he'll definately be better off passing than taking and recubing.
However, he doesn't have to recube immediately, but I still doubted that he could gain enough to make this a proper technical take so I sent the cube over and he took and rewhipped straight away. I rolled just fine in the bearoff while he danced a couple of times and into the final I went.
I'll post RO's later.
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