[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

This was from the LA Masters semis and...

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Thursday, 10 December 2009, at 11:54 p.m.

In Response To: I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet (neilkaz)

I was White playing Justin Nunez who was Black. I believe that I am quite familiar with these endgames and noting that my spares have yet to achieve perfect distribution, felt that Black could only win about 16.5% cubeless.

Justin would have about 16% ME if he passes per both Neil's Numbers and the rolled out GNU Supremo MET (Patience please..it comes out in about a month when we finish). He has 15 2/3& per g11.

I assumed that he'd recube no matter what since he's down 12-4C if he loses. When he recubes to 8 and wins, he wins a tad over 84% of the matches. So lets estimate 84% x 16.5% = less than 14% so unless I've underestimated his winning chances in this game, it seems that he'll definately be better off passing than taking and recubing.

However, he doesn't have to recube immediately, but I still doubted that he could gain enough to make this a proper technical take so I sent the cube over and he took and rewhipped straight away. I rolled just fine in the bearoff while he danced a couple of times and into the final I went.

I'll post RO's later.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.