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BGonline.org Forums
I lost a C-note to MCG
Posted By: Chris Knapp In Response To: I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet (neilkaz)
Date: Friday, 11 December 2009, at 1:43 p.m.
Well for me this would be a "3 look" decision, math may not be exact but its what i would estimate OTB.
Look 1: The board, 4 off, without perfect distribution, basic ME puts it pretty close 1in6 odds, so pretty even steven chances to take/drop.
Looks 2: The head, for risk return and even with the recube bonus, as it will likely be a very straight forward recube decision in the future, I improve to about 1in5, still a litle bit short of taking here.
Looks 3: Across the board...... Heck its Niel! Whats that do to my ME?
1) The tables are biased towards "equal players" at this score how much "Skill" equity am I giving up? Hmm I figure heads up, 13pter, I'm already 60/40 underdog (or probably MORE) 1/3 throught the match, trailing at that score it probably up to the 75/25 range by now. So take that 1in4 off and my basic ME is back to maybe 1in7.(14%)
2) If I pass this, to win the match it's unlikley to be straight forward games and probabaly going to require some pretty complicated positions, advantage neil. So give him another couple makes it 1in8 (12.5%)
3) So for the small equity difference between being a take/drop I'm giving up in this straight forward game is giving me at least 4or5 to 1 return (or probably more if I've overestimated my ability compared to Neil) to gamble now.
SO, Hell yes, I'm taking and rewhipping immediately on the Niel Factor!
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