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Rollout etc etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 4:25 a.m.

In Response To: I lost a C-note to MCG on this bet (neilkaz)

Hmmm.. the XG rollout showed 16.6% winning chances for Black and yet a clear take. I found that hard to believe, so I also did a quick GNU RO which showed the same thing so I peeled off a hundo and handed it to MCG.

Lets see why this is a clear take. Off course, it isn't proper to recube straight away and then Black has loads of recube vig. We'll use g11 and calculate his TP. If Black passes he has 15.67% if he takes and loses he has 5.41% so taking risks 10.25%. If he takes and wins he has 50% so taking and winning gains 34.33%. Therefore the TP is 23%. GNU agrees.

So..there's enough cube efficiency here to take a 16.6% cubeless position and boost it up to a 23% TP ?!!.

Here's the RO.




is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 39
13 point match
pip: 83
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=aBBBBBC---------A--A---df-:1:1:1:D:8:4:0:13:10
double to 4 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 83.39% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 16.61% (G: 0.01% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 83.47% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 16.53% (G: 0.01% B: 0.00%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.668
Redouble:+1.269
 
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.933
Redouble/Take:+0.922 (-0.011)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.067)
 
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
 
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
 
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.931...+0.935)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.920...+0.924)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
 
Duration: 45 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

As an example of cube effienciency... here's another RO and note that GNU, gives a fully live cube of 13.62% for Black here !! Being able to cube me out at 59.2% means lots !

Our talented MCG did the math on the TP and realized the cube effiency and beat me on the bet I proposed ! Hmmm..I will be smarter next time (insert smilies wearing dunce caps)




is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 39
13 point match
pip: 57
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCC----------------df-:1:1:1:D:8:4:0:13:10
double to 4 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances: 84.64% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 15.36% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 84.66% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 15.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
 
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.693
Redouble:+1.318
 
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.961 (-0.036)
Redouble/Take:+0.997
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.003)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
 
Rollout details
12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
 
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.959...+0.962)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.995...+0.999)
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.8%
 
Duration: 19 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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