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Rollout etc etc

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 5:36 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout etc etc (neilkaz)

Our talented MCG did the math on the TP and realized the cube effiency and beat me on the bet I proposed !

Honestly Neil is much better at these kinds of positions and calculations than I am, maybe better than anyone else I know, and I butchered the math a couple times before I came up with the right answer. But my intuition was just pretty strong that this was a take so I couldn't resist betting against Neil.

One thing to note here is that the fully live TP is around 13.6%. Now obviously Justin won't be able to recube at perfect efficiency but he can definitely do better than taking and autorewipping with no market loss. Usually if he gets a recube in it will be when he is around 40-50%--so sometimes he will lose the match here, but these are very efficient recubes. Most of his winning variations involve first getting to somewhere around 40-60% after throwing a set from the roof or hitting a shot.

So, although his recube vig is cramped due to the position, it really isn't that bad. Anytime you are leading by a significant margin and recubing to 4 you can expect the trailer to have a mountain of recube vig.

How much different is this position from his fully live TP (13.5%) and his autorewhip TP (18.5%)? Probably somewhere about halfway in between...i.e. around 16%, weighted somewhat towards favoring the fully live TP.

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