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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout etc etc
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Rollout etc etc (neilkaz)
Date: Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 4:05 p.m.
I would recommend using Chuck Bower's formula for estimating CWC needed to take a cube. It's pretty easy to use OTB and it's pretty accurate. To use it, all you need to know are 2 numbers - the taker's naive takepoint (if he just takes and never recubes) and the other player's CWC needed to take a cube at the next highest level. In money play or moneylike scores, these 2 figures are 25% and 20%(the latter comes from a way-over-my-head mathematical analysis done years ago by Keeler and somebody else). Chuck sez you can usually assume 70% efficiency on your recubes (and more/less if you're behind/ahead in a match BTW) so the CWC formula becomes the naive takepoint minus 70% of the product of the naive takepoint times the oppt's CWC on your potential recube. So it's 25% - 70%*25&*20% = 21.5%, which sounds about right.
ATS, I used 23.5% for the NTP and 40% for the OCWC. Plugging these #'s into the formula and using 70% efficiency makes the CWC ~17%. Apparently the big deficit in the score allows you to assume even greater efficiency.
Two other things to mention about this formula: 1) Estimating the OCWC can be difficult since you'll need to know what your own CWC to take 2 cube turns from now. If you're thinking about redoubling to 4 at 15a 15a, you can reasonably assume that the OCWC is right around the normal 20%. How about when you're leading 12a 15a? Here the OCWC is clearly < 20% since your 8-cube takepoint will be higher than normal and you'll almost never be able to redouble to 16. 2) Also remember that the type of position is important as well. Some kinds of positions (like races) give you more chances to offer an efficient recube than others. Ex, money game or a moneylike score, you're playing some kind of holding game, you've got a decent chance of getting a shot, you've got a winning board/prime so hitting a shot wins the game, and you're a mile behind in the race. Cube vig is very limited in this kind of position since you won't be able to recube if you get a shot, hitting the shot loses your market by a mile, and you seldom will be able to offer a recube in a straight race.
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