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Rollout etc etc

Posted By: Dorn Bishop
Date: Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 10:50 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout etc etc (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Perfect recube efficiency in money play yields a take point of 18.75%. I am thinking of the reference position from one of Danny Kleinman's old books where each player had a single checker left on their six point. Double/take even though the trailer only wins 1/4 x 3/4 = 3/16 (18.75%) of the time because the trailer can immediately redouble with perfect effiency if the leader rolls one of her nine misses.

To account for inefficiency, though, most put the take point at 22% in most money mid-length racing positions. That is almost right in the middle between 18.75% and 25%.

In this position with these match equities, "right in the middle" between 13.8% perfect recube efficiency (60% of 23%) and 23% needed wins cubeless is just under 18% -- a pass compared to the 16.6% cubeless wins for the trailer.

So I wonder if what ultimately turns this into a take has more to do with recube FREQUENCY and recube VALUE instead of recube efficiency. In other words, here you only need to get to your opponent's 40 yard line to win by kicking a field goal instead of his goal line (cubeless) or his 25 yard line (money play). That is going to happen more often than getting to his 25 yard line (frequency). And if (even though not assured) you might still win from trying a last-second desperation kick from as far back as your own 20 or 30 yard line, then you get more value from that option than you would in money play.

Yes? No? Maybe so?

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