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Rollout etc etc

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Saturday, 12 December 2009, at 11:04 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout etc etc (Dorn Bishop)

In this position with these match equities, "right in the middle" between 13.8% perfect recube efficiency (60% of 23%) and 23% needed wins cubeless is just under 18% -- a pass compared to the 16.6% cubeless wins for the trailer.

Well, I am talking about the perfect efficiency TP vs. the autorewhip TP. The variations where Black wins 4 points are so infrequent that I don't bother worrying about them.

So I wonder if what ultimately turns this into a take has more to do with recube FREQUENCY and recube VALUE instead of recube efficiency. In other words, here you only need to get to your opponent's 40 yard line to win by kicking a field goal instead of his goal line (cubeless) or his 25 yard line (money play). That is going to happen more often than getting to his 25 yard line (frequency). And if (even though not assured) you might still win from trying a last-second desperation kick from as far back as your own 20 or 30 yard line, then you get more value from that option than you would in money play.

Yes, that sounds about right to me, and it's basically what I mean when I talk about recube "efficiency" or just "recube vig". To me an efficient recube at this score is one where you are in the range of 40-60%. That isn't even close to an efficient recube for money.

Also of note is that your doubling window is huge compared to money. But no point in cubing if you don't have market loss.

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