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65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 14 December 2009, at 12:40 a.m.

In Response To: 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Another reason this kind of slot is wrong with a 6 is that next roll both Blue's covering and non-covering rolls have a tendency to play awkwardly and leave a second blot.

Assuming Blue is missed after 62S-31P-66 (the subset of positions to which I think you refer), I believe Blue's equity is better having played $ (Slot 11/5) than having played D (Down 13/7) -- he'll end up with an extra point more often. In both positions, Blue hopes to make a fourth offensive point and that will frequently mean leaving a direct shot again.

Your comment doesn't contradict that -- I agree if your essential point is that after getting missed the gain of having played $ instead of D is not as big as it might otherwise appear, due to the fallout of awkward distribution.

Given that $ works out better when missed, it is logical to conclude that it is the combination of quality and quantity (3 extra) of White's hits that cause Blue's $ play to go from being better (when missed) to being worse overall compared to D. [The quality issue, the one I addressed, is the one that seems so often neglected.]

Nack

P.S. Corrections to my main post: (1) Under the second diagram, should be "...and D beats $ by .030." (2) Above the final diagram and in the caption, "66P" should be "66B." And (3) In the paragraph above that, instead of "your 7pt" I meant to say "one or both 7pts."

Messages In This Thread

• Killing the fetish point
  Matt Ryder -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 7:08 a.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Peter G. -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 9:38 a.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 10:28 a.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 10:31 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 1:45 p.m.
      • Hmm...seduced by duplication again
        neilkaz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:56 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 2:39 a.m.
      • Killing the fetish point
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:00 a.m.
  • Never had that problem myself
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 5:54 p.m.
  • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 6:40 p.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 8:53 p.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 11:11 p.m.
      • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 12:40 a.m.
        • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
          Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 12:52 a.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 1:54 a.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 2:59 a.m.
      • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 4:54 a.m.
        • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 10:55 p.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Matt Ryder -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 6:21 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 6:59 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 10:47 a.m.
      • Killing the fetish point
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 1:29 p.m.