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65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 14 December 2009, at 4:54 a.m.

In Response To: 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62 (Timothy Chow)

The reason that it is wrong to slot the 5pt is that it allows the opponent to too easily meet two great objectives in the same move: to hit and to split.

I'm afraid I don't find this explanation very helpful, because there are many times when it is right to slot the 5pt (or more generally, the front of a prime that one is building to contain a single checker) even though the opponent could achieve two great objectives by hitting it.

I guess my choice of wording threw you. In context, by "slot the 5pt" I referred specifically to the 5pt-slotting play (24/18 13/7(2) 11/5) as opposed to the down play (24/18 13/7(3)) in this position, definitely not to slotting the 5pt in general.

You should often be willing to slot into a direct shot when you're behind in the race and/or have a stronger board and/or can unstack a tall point. None of those conditions apply here: we are far, far removed from any position where it might be right to slot rather than play safe. After reaching the 62S-31P-66 position with three 6s played, Blue definitely does not want to slot his 5pt or any point that involves a direct shot. For example, if Blue were allowed instead to move the 11pt checker 1, 2, 3, 4 or even 5 pips, any of those choices would be better than moving it 6 pips (slotting the 5pt). Or, if Blue were offered a complimentary unstacking ace to slot his 5pt, he should decline it.

In short, Blue hates leaving a shot but it is forced and he must choose where to leave it. It is not a slot-or-safe-ish problem. It is a choice of leaving the 5pt blot versus leaving the midpoint blot and the concept I'm expressing (simplified) is not to leave the 5pt blot because White's four-hits on her 20pt (that split/escape a back checker) are significantly better than the ace-hits on her 12pt.

I would be inclined to explain this play by emphasizing instead that leaving the mid-point blot costs a lot less than one might think.

I did mention that (and others did too), though I think the presence of other outfield points lessening the value of the midpoint is a relatively well-known concept. Anyway, by itself it doesn't offer an adequate explanation of why getting hit on the 13pt is less costly than getting hit on the 5pt. IMO, the value-of-hit concept is vital to the explanation and is not so well known.

Nack

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