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Killing the fetish point

Posted By: Matt Ryder
Date: Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 6:21 a.m.

In Response To: Killing the fetish point (Matt Ryder)

Thanks for the highly articulate analysis. Nack's replies in particular contain some enormously original insights. For me, his posts on this forum alone justify his inclusion on a Giants list.

I played the slot, and was astonished to see it place 3rd. Following Nack's excellent explanation, I hope not to make the same mistake in future. However I suspect that due to my ongoing midpoint aversion, I may still miss the top play. Anyone got trenchant advice about when to consider breaking the mid? Apart from the duplication of 1s, I can't see enough of a risk/reward ratio here to justify leaving a shot on the 13. I understand the extra point-making potential, and the additional attacking numbers if my opponent flees to my outer board. But how does this balance against the threat of a hit and and an ugly gap on the midpoint for the rest of the match?

1.	Rollout1	13/11 13/7	eq: +0.570
	Player: Opponent: 62.62% (G:14.21% B:1.12%) 37.38% (G:8.61% B:0.85%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.558...+0.582) Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes 50 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/5	eq: +0.532 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 61.85% (G:12.76% B:0.80%) 38.15% (G:7.36% B:0.61%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.522...+0.542) Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes 37 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/7 6/4	eq: +0.498 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 60.92% (G:14.11% B:1.14%) 39.08% (G:10.69% B:1.24%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.486...+0.510) Duration: 3 hours 43 minutes 47 seconds
4.	2 ply	18/10	eq: +0.290 (-0.280)
	Player: Opponent: 58.90% (G:9.57% B:0.28%) 41.10% (G:11.81% B:0.19%)
5.	1 ply	13/7 8/6	eq: +0.135 (-0.435)
	Player: Opponent: 52.99% (G:10.88% B:0.29%) 47.01% (G:7.91% B:0.21%)
1 4000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.10, MET: eXtremeGammon

Messages In This Thread

• Killing the fetish point
  Matt Ryder -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 7:08 a.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Peter G. -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 9:38 a.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 10:28 a.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 10:31 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 1:45 p.m.
      • Hmm...seduced by duplication again
        neilkaz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:56 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      Rich Munitz -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 2:39 a.m.
      • Killing the fetish point
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 3:00 a.m.
  • Never had that problem myself
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 5:54 p.m.
  • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 6:40 p.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 8:53 p.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 13 December 2009, at 11:11 p.m.
      • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 12:40 a.m.
        • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
          Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 12:52 a.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 1:54 a.m.
    • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 2:59 a.m.
      • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 4:54 a.m.
        • 65R-31P-55P-66B-51$-62
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 14 December 2009, at 10:55 p.m.
  • Killing the fetish point
    Matt Ryder -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 6:21 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 6:59 a.m.
    • Killing the fetish point
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 10:47 a.m.
      • Killing the fetish point
        Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 15 December 2009, at 1:29 p.m.