Kit says: Sylvester doubles on the come. He feels that if he points on Ballard on the 21 point he will lose his market, and even if Ballard wins the fight for the 21 point Sylvester will have a small racing advantage. This is not a bad double, but I would be inclined to wait. With no board at all Sylvester does not figure to be able to carry out a blitz even if he makes the four point, and if Ballard grabs the point the game will be close and Sylvester will wish he still had access to the cube.
However, there is one strong argument in favor of the double -- Ballard might pass! Sylvester certainly has some threats, and these threats may look too menacing to Ballard. While I think Ballard has a clear take, he may evaluate the position differently. When in doubt, double, is a very good philosophy. Any time you toss the cube over, you give your opponent an opportunity to make a bad cube decision, and you will gain tremendously from these bad decisions. I have many times made what I considered a marginal double into what I thought was a clear take, only to find my opponent passing the double.
Stick adds: No need for a lengthy rollout here. The double is premature having a measely 3 pip lead in the race and the attacking chances aren't all that huge. I doubt many would double this nowadays realizing you're 'threatening to threaten'. Sylvester doubled, Nack took. Sylvester rolled 51 behind his double and misplayed it like a champ (he played 13/7!? and Nack immediately hit him with a 63)
The score (after 2 games) is: Nack 1, Joe 1 (match to 19 points)
Move number 16: Joe on roll, cube decision?
| Nack | 128 |
|---|---|
| |
| Joe | 125 |
Position ID: cO8NACLguwcjAA Match ID: cAlgAhAACAAA | |
• Joe doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.0315)!
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.4234 | (Money: +0.4217) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | No double | +0.6886 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.3114 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | Double, take | +0.6571 | -0.0315 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | No double, take (9.2%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063541351 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||