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Re: Re: -2/-5 race cube question

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 21 May 2007, at 1:19 a.m.

In Response To: Re: -2/-5 race cube question (Chase)

White's take point at 5a2a is a bit higher than for money, so this looks like a proper d/t.

I think Chase is thinking of a last-roll double.

(A) Redouble Possible

Pass to trail 5-away 1-away --> 15% match equity
Take and lose --> 0%
Take, redouble and win --> 1-away 2-away and 68% match equity
Take point = R/(R+G) = 15/(15+53) = 15/68 = 22%

(B) Redouble Not Possible

Pass to trail 5-away 1-away --> 15% match equity
Take and lose --> 0%
Take and win --> 3-away 2-away and 40% match equity
Take point = R/(R+G) = 15/(15+25) = 15/40 = 37.5%

(With precise G11 MET numbers, 22.8% and 38.8%)

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