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Re: Re: Re: -2/-5 race cube question

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 21 May 2007, at 3:22 a.m.

In Response To: Re: Re: -2/-5 race cube question (DC-Ohio)

By the raw pipcount I estimate Blue is about 4 pips short of a money drop, but his superior distribution is worth about 2 pips, so Blue wins about 74.4%, and has a borderline no-double/double against an equal opponent.

If opponent is flipping a coin on his take, and it's almost a double, then Blue's double equity is half-way beween D/T and D/P, which should make doubling very correct if opponent is Blue's equal except for this one decision. If it's actually a double, then the pass vig makes doubling even better.

But if opponent is guessing on this decision perhaps he's actually greatly inferior to Blue. Cribbing some numbers from the Jacobs/Trice +400 table (which is a lot, for sure), Blue wins about 90% after Double/Take, about 90% after Double/Pass, about 89% if he never doubles at all, and ... I guess about about 90% if he doubles not now but later.

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