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Re: -2/-5 race cube question

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 21 May 2007, at 5:44 a.m.

In Response To: -2/-5 race cube question (DC-Ohio)

Keith count

Blue :89
0+0+0+0 = 0
89/7 = 12
89+12 = 101
Blue's EPC = 101

White :96
2+0+0+0 = 4
96+2 = 98
White's EPC = 98

  • A player should double if his count exceeds the opponent’s count by no more than 4.
  • A player should redouble if his count exceeds the opponent’s count by no more than 3.
  • The opponent should take if the doubler’s count exceeds the opponent’s count by at least 2.

That says D/T for $.


Thanks to Daniel's solid math of the 5a2a TP figuring:

(A) Redouble Possible

Pass to trail 5-away 1-away --> 15% match equity
Take and lose --> 0%
Take, redouble and win --> 1-away 2-away and 68% match equity
Take point = R/(R+G) = 15/(15+53) = 15/68 = 22%

We realize the TP isn't all that different from $ play. So it is obviously a take here.

I don't think you're in your market window here yet & would hold off on the cube. I had more to say but always have problems expressing my match play decisions. lol

Stick

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