[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Which point to clear?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 30 December 2009, at 2:03 a.m.

In Response To: Which point to clear? (TheProdigy)

Definitely it is right to break the 8pt and leave only 11 shots.

One of the beauties of a mini-showdown position (Opp has your 7pt, you have 11pt or closer) is that you always have your opponent either outraced or outtimed, and sometimes both (as here). White is behind in the race and yet rates to waste more pips than Blue does.

Ahead in the race (11 pips after the play), Blue should on balance break his 11pt safely if he can, but there is nevertheless a value in keeping the 11pt (as Joe said). It prevents 64 54 44 and maybe 22 from running on this turn, and on the next turn (assuming no great roll from either side) you can start counting 3s and 2s among the numbers being restrained. It's a double-edged sword but White's board is going south faster than Blue's.

There is a race lead at which Blue should break the 11pt anyway and leave the 2 extra shots. To make it obvious, put both of White's inside spares back on her midpoint. Now, Blue should play 11/10 11/5. Blue will crash faster than White, so Blue is more likely to leave a second shot while White will almost never be forced to leave a shot.

There is a breakeven point somewhere between that extreme and Prodigy's actual position, perhaps an adjustment of about half those 21 pips.

So, 8/2 is the 6. Playing 2/1 leaves an ace-blot that might get hit: White rolls a 1, Blue hits back with 4- numbers on average, White rolls another 1. That's about a 1% parlay (and doesn't yet decide the game). The race is too close to worry about that, so I go with the smoother 2/1, which gives Blue a good chance to cover the 1pt next roll or break a higher point to cover the 1pt on the subsequent roll if outside contact remains. In short, 8/1 is my choice.

IF Blue were, say 10-12 pips further ahead in the race -- bring White's inside spares back again (ignoring that it might make Blue's 10pt-breaking play right instead) -- I'd prefer 8/2 6/5 to 8/1 due to the aforementioned parlay.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.