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*** GNUbg 2/2 ply rollout ***
Posted By: Mislav Radica In Response To: Take or pass? (Mislav Radica)
Date: Wednesday, 23 May 2007, at 8:27 a.m.
Well, it seems that this one fucked up better players than mayself. Rollout is not conclusion yet but I find it is enough numbers of trials. At this score double is more doubtfull than a take! Pass is huge error according this gnubg rollout. Still I can't belive that it is such a big error. I thought it is borderline take/pass decision. In addition I send my and Ian's comments before bot check. Btw, we play OLM on daily basis at very good site brainking.com (It is primary turn base site for chess with horrible graphics for backgammon but with very good feature for commenting etc.) and those comments are from that session.
The score (after 1 game) is: White 2, You 0 (match to 9 points)
Move number 10: White doubles to 2
White 153
You 188 Position ID: 4HlwgFSw8+BBEA Match ID: MBkgASAAAAAA
• You rejects
Alert: wrong pass ( -0,1723)!
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0,6054 (Money: +0,6086) Cubeful equities: 1. Double, take +0,8277 2. Double, pass +1,0000 +0,1723 3. No double +0,7853 -0,0425 Proper cube action: Double, take Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 66,82% 30,82% 3,21% - 33,18% 6,52% 0,29% +0,6054 +0,7853 Standard error 0,17% 0,19% 0,13% - 0,17% 0,11% 0,03% 0,0049 0,0132 Player You owns 2-cube 66,60% 31,72% 4,11% - 33,40% 6,47% 0,35% +1,2112 +0,8277 Standard error 0,23% 0,30% 0,22% - 0,23% 0,12% 0,04% 0,0138 0,0191 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2172 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1064893234 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
AnnotationM:With huge racing deficit and no anchor and without offense and your back checker already moving with my one checker on the bar doubling is clear. The take is question.
You have nine checkers in the zone and have threat to put my second checker on the bar with 24 35 22 44 66 33 11 or even some double hitters like 23 43 61 total 15 numbers.
It is early in the game but I am seriously thinking about drop here.
Only your lead in the match is argument for take and my chances to anchor if survive next roll.
At even score I would drop in the flash, here I am not sure but I lost so many double gammons that I think it is better to let this one go. I pass.
This is real candidate for rollout.
gnubg 2ply and 4ply think that it clear take (pass is -.090 err according 2ply) but 3ply think take is a .102 err!
It is not holding game so maybe 2 and 4 ply thought is correct but I still think that without any new inner point and without anchor I have real chances to get in deuce or ace point game as best and it is known that this games are drop.
I:I must admit that I thought the Take was easy, I was more worried about it being a correct Double at this score!
From your feedback it would seem that this is a big Take (I'm with 2-ply and 4-ply). It seems to me that you will still grab an advanced anchor often, or at least and anchor of some kind, and you won't be blitzed away. Quite often I will only have a 2point board next roll and will have plenty of trouble escaping my rear men and coming home safely. A rollout will be very interesting.
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