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Example of the denseness of NFL front offices

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 12 January 2010, at 2:24 p.m.

In Response To: Unfair NFL overtime rules (Bob Koca)

On one of our trips to advertise ZEUS to NFL teams, Frank and I visited with an Associate GM of a team to remain nameless. The issue of the decision of kicking or receiving during overtime came up.

At that time (at least he quoted this stat) the kicking team had a better record winning overtime games than the receiving team. BTW, no mention of statistical uncertainty came from his mouth. (No surprise there.) Of course we knew the 'theoretical' value (57% for the receiving team) from ZEUS simulations.

So I asked him "if you were the captain on the field and won the toss in overtime, would you choose to kick or receive?" With a sheepish, unconfident look on his face he said "well, since we have a good offense I'd choose to receive." He implied that if his team was better known for its defense he would choose to kick.

Later we ran multiple situations -- good/bad offense and defense for both teams. The absolute GWC changed, but the relative decision never did, nor did it even get close.

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