Example of the denseness of NFL front offices
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Unfair NFL overtime rules (Bob Koca)
Date: Tuesday, 12 January 2010, at 2:24 p.m.
In Response To: Unfair NFL overtime rules (Bob Koca)
On one of our trips to advertise ZEUS to NFL teams, Frank and I visited with an Associate GM of a team to remain nameless. The issue of the decision of kicking or receiving during overtime came up.
At that time (at least he quoted this stat) the kicking team had a better record winning overtime games than the receiving team. BTW, no mention of statistical uncertainty came from his mouth. (No surprise there.) Of course we knew the 'theoretical' value (57% for the receiving team) from ZEUS simulations.
So I asked him "if you were the captain on the field and won the toss in overtime, would you choose to kick or receive?" With a sheepish, unconfident look on his face he said "well, since we have a good offense I'd choose to receive." He implied that if his team was better known for its defense he would choose to kick.
Later we ran multiple situations -- good/bad offense and defense for both teams. The absolute GWC changed, but the relative decision never did, nor did it even get close.
Messages In This Thread
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.