Quantifying recube vig
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Quantifying recube vig (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Tuesday, 12 January 2010, at 3:34 p.m.
In Response To: Quantifying recube vig (Matt Cohn-Geier)
What is White's redoubling probability (i.e., the percentage of the time that White gets to redouble)?
This is more or less a function of the leader's takepoint. Or your cube point, or both.
This is interesting. To confirm, you're saying that you think that the redoubling probability is typically more strongly influenced by the score than by the peculiarities of the position? I can certainly see that that makes sense at certain scores. For example, at some scores we know that the redoubling probability is going to be close to 1 for almost any "reasonable" position.
If this is true then that's promising for what I'm trying to do, because it means that when we're trying to estimate recube vig (at least in gammon-free positions), there's only "one parameter (the cube efficiency) that is highly position-dependent. We don't have to estimate two position-dependent parameters if one of the parameters is largely score-dependent.
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